The Duel

Todd Gurley Fantasy Outlook Gets Boost With Usage Projection From Rams Beat Writer

Zach Brunner
Divisional Round - Dallas Cowboys v Los Angeles Rams
Divisional Round - Dallas Cowboys v Los Angeles Rams / Harry How/Getty Images

One of the biggest stories in the fantasy football world this offseason has been the state of Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley's health.

After being reduced to a limited workload in the 2018 playoffs, reports surfaced that Gurley has been suffering from arthritis in his knees, creating some obvious concern heading into the 2019 season.

A reduction in workload for the star running back was expected, but the size of the reduction has been unclear. A Rams beat writer has given us our first concrete projection for the season.

Gurley was by far the top running back in fantasy last year, totaling 18.3 more fantasy points than the second-placed Saquon Barkley, and doing it in only 14 games. The reason for the workload reduction is to try to keep Gurley on the field for the full regular season and into the playoffs.

If the above projected workload is accurate, Gurley could still offer a ton of fantasy value. If his snap share fell to 75 percent but his efficiency stayed the same as it was last year, he would be on a 16-game pace for over 300 fantasy points again. This weekly average would come to over 19 fantasy points, which would have still been the highest for any RB in 2018.

Only five running backs had a snap share of at least 75 percent last year, and with his elite efficiency a reduction to that mark wouldn't be much of a concern for Gurley.

Gurley is being drafted as the RB9 (10th overall) according to's ADP rankings. While there's obvious risk involved with drafting Gurley, we know how high his upside is, and now see how his projected drop in workload can still leave him as one of the top running backs in fantasy football.

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