and Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your First Wager Wins!
NFL Power Rankings
By Kurt Boyer
Updated: February 8, 2024
Super Bowl Power Rankings: Top 5 Difference Makers in Paradise
Super Bowl LVIII between the defending Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will kick off this Sunday in Paradise, Nevada. But there won't be any "paradise" for Super Bowl athletes matched up against the biggest superstars on either team, some of which are considered to be shoo-ins to prevail in future NFL Hall-of-Fame ballots already.
Here's our blog's once-a-year-only "Super Bowl Power Rankings" of the top 5 potential difference-makers of Super Bowl Sunday.
#1 - RB Christian McCaffery, San Francisco 49ers
You can make a case for all kinds of #1 difference-makers in Super Bowl LVIII, including a pair of head coaches and an All-Pro quarterback in Kansas City's QB Pat Mahomes. Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers must fight off the sour memories of 2 blown leads in past Super Bowl games in order to set out a winning game plan against KC's coach, Andy Reid. A pop music fan would say that Taylor Swift is making a huge impact on this season's proceedings, though it's far more likely her date, Travis Kelce, will turn that trick.
But if this Super Bowl is a "delayed rematch" between Chiefs and 49ers teams who've kept their NFL postseason identities intact, then it's up to the San Francisco running game to do what San Fran's powerful OL almost finished doing to the KC Chiefs in February of 2020, and give Mahomes' shaky offense few chances to score by controlling the football and the championship game for 4 quarters. That's partially up to San Francisco's blocking effort against an excellent Kansas City defense, and also up to its gadget-rushers like WR Deebo Samuel. It's absolutely, positively, "Chiefly" up to San Fran's superstar tailback Christian McCaffery to pierce the Kansas City defense, however, since the 49ers' rushing attack isn't quite as explosive or multifaceted as it was when San Francisco's new blocking schemes shocked the entire NFL in 2019-20. Shanahan should try to turn that into a positive by relying on McCaffery, the ultimate workhouse and trump card at the end of a rare, completely healthy season for the ageless phenom out of Stanford University.
#2 - HC Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
This year's #2 Super Bowl power ranking is a "provisional" matter. If the San Francisco 49ers fall behind to the Kansas City Chiefs on Super Bowl Sunday, then San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan's tendency to open up his offense in big moments will serve the 49er team and fan base well against KC's tremendous defense. On the contrary, if the 49ers lead over the Chiefs with substantial time remaining this Sunday night, Shanahan will have to resist the temptation that has cost the Falcons and 49ers franchises Lombardi hardware.
There was no need for the San Francisco 49ers to do anything but run the football on every play in the 4th quarter of Super Bowl LV. NFL coaches are used to sprinkling passes into drives even when the ground game is clicking, because a traditional NFL offense can only produce 5 yards of daylight at a time, while the rest is up to the runner. San Francisco's successful rushing attempts were gaining 15 or 20 yards each. Instead of sticking with what had gobbled fast yardage for the club, the 49ers began asking Jimmy Garoppolo to match Mahomes through the air. That's like asking a decent rookie tailback to run with Walter Payton. 2nd-and-5 was needlessly turned into 3rd-and-5 on the crucial series, and soon Kansas City's offense was revved-up again, like a racecar that finally got on the track.
So what if McCaffery, or even Deebo Samuel, can only average 4-to-6 yards per carry versus Kansas City on Sunday? If the 49ers take a decent lead over the Chiefs going into the 2nd half, Shanahan must let his painful memories serve San Francisco well in 2024, and resist any and all urges to let Brock Purdy get into a QB's duel with Mahomes, the kind that Garoppolo lost in the late-going the last time KC and San Francisco met for grand glory. It's obvious that a more bread-and-butter rushing attack would help the 49ers win a potential low-scoring game over Kansas City this weekend, in some ways more than the explosive, unpredictable rushes of San Fran's 2019-20 offense. That should give Shanahan even more motivation to count his lucky stars if Mahomes' team is behind, and grind that clock away.
#3 - QB Pat Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is working on an NFL postseason resume that could eventually rival Tom Brady's, presuming the Chiefs continue to reign over the AFC. Mahomes has now passed for 39 touchdowns and nearly 5000 yards in NFL playoff and Super Bowl games. But we're not convinced that Super Bowl Sunday is going to be a revved-up QB's duel that exceeds FanDuel Sportsbook's Over/Under point total line on the Greatest Show on Earth.
#4 - HC Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes' only downside this postseason has been a tendency to get less efficient after running through coach Andy Reid's opening "script" of plays. Kansas City rode the "script" to enough points to overwhelm Baltimore's faltering attack in the AFC Championship Game, but Mahomes couldn't goose any latter-half TD drives out of the defending champions in spite of starting out by zipping around 12 completions in a row.
Reid writes the scripts for Mr. Mahomes. The "walrus" head coach could turn into a goat if he writes a bad one for Sunday … but that opening play-call script, modeled after Bill Walsh's great 49ers schemes, remains the Chiefs' best weapon going into the bout.
#5 - TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Should the San Francisco 49ers' game plan mirror the strangest tactical coaching turn in Major League Soccer history, which occurred this season as Lionel Messi delayed his debut with Herons of Inter Miami? Miami's front office was essentially forced to play Messi in summer tournament action before they may have been ready to, since Kim Kardashian, among others, purchased tickets to Inter Miami's first home kickoff after signing the legendary striker. As the opposing Mexican head coach pointed out in July, sometimes a headline story becomes too powerful for even an "eyes on the prize" HC to ignore.
Ignoring the threat of Travis Kelce, and focusing on totally shutting down a shaky KC wide receiving corps instead, would be a perfectly legit game plan for San Francisco in Super Bowl LVIII. Except for the fact that Kelce's celebrity - and his rock star choice of girlfriend—has gotten into several teams' heads already this year, and could affect the Super Bowl's battle for positive momentum on the field if Kelce is allowed to have another field day. Simply imagine the scene if Kelce scores 3 times and catches 7+ passes for 150 or more yards. Taylor Swift's luxury seat would become the TV producer's favorite "isolation" shot next to Patrick Mahomes' face. San Francisco could at least look forward to a Super Bowl which didn't feature an ongoing obsession with Swift's press box visuals, since Taylor is essentially a big fish in a big pond when it comes to celebrities at the Super Bowl. The spectacle can't revolve around Taylor Swift cheering for her boyfriend when there's also Kardashian and a dozen other A-list stars sitting around the 50-yard line. But if the superstar TE gets hot in the passing game, Swifties will trend #1 all over again.
Kelce will thus make an impact on the "49ers-Chiefs Redux" Super Bowl even if he doesn't catch a single pass. San Francisco's defense, angry at the weekly coverage of Kelce-Swift much like Oregon got mad about Colorado's constant hype early this college season, could utilize Kelce's presence as a linchpin, and focus on not allowing a single, simple Mahomes completion up the middle to Kelce, or to any other secondary receiver, forcing the slight underdogs to win via their weakest links in the KC wide receiving corps. But that might allow Mahomes to pitch an absolute gem running-and-scrambling for the full 4 quarters of a victorious Super Bowl. Of all the Super Bowl memories involving the NFC West, the 49ers' defensive coaching staff should look up what happened when the Tennessee Titans' defense tried to use "stop Marshall Faulk" as a winning game plan against the St. Louis Rams' high-tech offense of Y2K. Tennessee's front-7 slapped butts and banged helmets after stopping the Rams' few running plays - but gave up the winning TD to Kurt Warner.
The NFL's Top 10 Franchises Since the Year 2000
It may be impossible to run an NFL Power Rankings blog without at least one argument over its contents. So, we’ll start this section in the least-arguable way possible.
The New England Patriots are no longer the dominant team in pro football. Better teams have risen up to at least threaten—if not produce—a dynasty run to match the Pats.
Sure, the Patriots won the AFC East again in 2019-20. But the season was followed by the QB-to-TE connection of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski moving on from Foxboro. Still, football dynasties often perish of old age.
It’s right to assume that New England’s generational changes have left a void. Kansas City and San Francisco fought for the vacated mantle last February, with quarterback Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs pulling out the win with a fabulous 4th quarter. KC head coach Andy Reid retains the nucleus of a team that won every 2019-20 postseason game by double digits. However, the Patriots still stand as the National Football League's one genuinely dominant dynasty run since the year 2000. New England’s list of modern titles may be nearly unparalleled in American sports, and unheard of outside of “rigged” soccer leagues with only 1 or 2 powerful rosters of the best players. But even more stunning is the long-term turnaround for the Boston club since the 1900s ended.
“New England Patriots” wasn’t exactly synonymous with success for much of the 20th century. The team went broke in the 70s, turned Jim Plunkett into a walking medical case, and was crushed when it reached the Greatest Show on Earth in the year 1985.
The misadventures ended when a coach named Belichick, and a quarterback named Brady, arrived at team headquarters.
#1 - New England Patriots
It’s to Pats head coach Bill Belichick’s credit that he doesn’t simply call it a day after 17 playoff appearances, 9 AFC titles, and 6 championships since back in 2000.
Many other coaches, even Vince Lombardi, have moved on when Hall of Famers start retiring and signing 1-off contracts elsewhere. But it’s safe to say his decision is not 100% unselfish. He wants to prove he can win a few more playoff games at Gillette Stadium without Tom Brady flinging passes for the Patriots.
#2 - Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s a little tradition in ranking the Steelers over the Ravens, but to say Pittsburgh hasn’t earned it would be overlooking the facts. Since 2000, no team other than New England has played in or won more postseason games than the Pittsburgh Steelers, and nobody besides the Patriots has won more titles. Steeltown has also cultivated a rare long-term relationship with the talent of its head coach, Mike Tomlin.
#3 - Baltimore Ravens
Few franchises in any sport have manufactured such immediate and lasting success as the Baltimore Ravens. They won a championship in the year 2000 and haven’t lost in February—or lost much at all—since then. Historical ranks sometimes overvalue clubs that are presently successful, and we won’t do that here, though Jackson and Harbaugh give Baltimore a steady 2-pronged anchor moving into a new decade.
Jackson's durability has been questioned after more seasons in which the QB can't stay healthy or effective for 17 games, in spite of taking more punishment from the pass-pocket than when sliding to the turf on long option carries. Thankfully for Baltimore, Jackson's backup, Tyler Huntley, had a breakout game in the 2023 AFC Wild Card playoffs.
#4 - Green Bay Packers
The Packers are another team that it would be nice to rank even higher because of tradition, but alas, these are only “21st-century” rankings. The Packers are the only club in the league owned by its fans, and Cheeseheads have been richly rewarded with over a dozen playoff wins and a Lombardi Trophy since the year 1999.
#5 - Philadelphia Eagles
We’re basing these NFL franchise ranks on postseason success more than other factors. After all, if you don’t win many regular-season games, you don’t end up in many postseasons. However, few clubs can compare with Philadelphia’s regular-season record since the turn of the century. The Eagles have only suffered 4 losing seasons in 20 years, winning 10 division titles in that time. Philly’s league championship in 2017-18 was richly earned, but also somewhat inevitable with so many appearances in the playoffs.
In 2023, the Eagles nearly had another championship title in their back pocket, but fell just four points short from defeating the Chiefs.
#6 - Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has struggled in enough recent seasons that it’s easy to forget just how proud Colts fans get to be. Peyton Manning led players to a championship win over the Chicago Bears back in 2007, and quarterback Andrew Luck was supposed to be Manning’s successor as the long-term steward of the team’s offense. Luck made the franchise a winner once again, but injuries forced the Pro Bowl passer to retire in his prime.
#7 - New York Giants
Once again, don’t be fooled by the passing of time. New York has spent a few seasons loitering around the NFC East cellar, and the iconic quarterback Eli Manning moved on in 2019. But it was Eli who led the Big Blue through a miracle 4th quarter to ruin the Patriots’ quest for an unbeaten overall record in 2008, and the Giants were in the best position to win it all against the same opponent again in 2012.
New York returned to the playoffs in 2022-23, scoring a huge upset over the Minnesota Vikings on the road before bowing out against Philadelphia.
#8 - Seattle Seahawks
There is no more distinctive team than Seattle, with gum-chomping mastermind Pete Carroll stalking the sidelines. The Seahawks have won 13 playoff games and 3 conference titles since the year 2000, but Carroll would like to get back to the postseason winner’s circle after failing to win the league crown in nearly double-digit tries.
#9 - Kansas City Chiefs
Champions of the 2020s are beginning to creep into the NFL's "best of the 21st century" conversation, and that certainly includes Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mahomes was hobbled in a tough Divisional Round playoff win over Jacksonville last playoff season, potentially echoing the QB's flagging health and effectiveness in KC's unsuccessful Super Bowl bid against Tom Brady. But the Chiefs held firm against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the next postseason round to come, defeating the Bengals in another dramatic rivalry bout to qualify for Super Bowl 57 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Early 2023's Super Bowl in Glendale turned into a classic NFL title bout, as the Eagles threatened to take a prohibitive halftime lead. But the Chiefs grittily hung on long enough for Pat Mahomes' legendary offense to rev up in the latter half of yet another Super Bowl. Mahomes and the Chiefs rallied for a historic, if controversial, 38-35 victory that marked the franchise's 2nd comeback Super Bowl win in 4 seasons. Kansas City's short and long-term odds are expected to be as short as any team's until further notice.
#10 - Dallas Cowboys
It's nice to be able to include Dallas on this list again. There are always "sentimental" bets placed on America's Team, just as England's soccer faithful still pick Manchester United's long odds to conquer Europe. Over the last 2 years, however, the Dallas Cowboys have demonstrated that there is substance behind the hype.
It seemed unlikely that 2022-23 would bring an even better campaign than 2021-22's stellar effort, given the injury problems in late summer. But it did, culminating in a playoff victory over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that may have ended Tom Terrific's pro football career for good with the Cowboys' great effort on defense.
Big D spent 2022-23 overcoming just the kind of adversity pundits once feared would be prohibitive since the prior summer. The injury bug reared its head early in the season as Prescott sustained injury along with multiple key offensive linemen, leaving backup Cooper Rush to pilot an unlikely winning streak prior to the Cowboys falling short against unbeaten Philadelphia. Dallas lost to San Francisco in a hotly-contested playoff game in Week 20. Regardless, expect the Cowboys to garner optimistic betting lines for 2023-24.
FAQs
I'm new to NFL football. Where can I find Power Rankings on every team?
New and old football fans rank the best and worst NFL teams throughout the season. For the latest 2021 NFL Power Rankings, learn more and huddle up here.
Who is moving up the NFL power rankings?
Power rankings can be a useful guide to charting every team’s ebbs and flows and results throughout a full season. FanDuel’s weekly power rankings focus on the right factors to consider for the NFL season as teams rise and fall on the gridiron every Sunday.
Who is odds-on favorite to win the 2021 NFL Championship?
For now, the Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to take home the Lombrandi over the field. With FanDuel Sportsbook, you can place a wager on the defending Superbowl champions to report or
Why NFL team go from favorites to underdogs on the point spread?
A variety of factors can affect the point spread of NFL games. Nearing kickoff, oddsmakers may change point spreads for a number of NFL games, including key matchups, to factor incoaching press conferences, injuries, suspensions, and weather. Find out more about these factors in our guide to NFL betting.