2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Thursday 7/3/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

The New York Yankees' lineup remain a scary team to fade, but we're going to put our faith in Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt to keep them off the board in the first inning.

That's because Bassitt has generally been great to begin games, logging a 2.95 xFIP, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 4.6% walk rate the first time through the order. Despite getting rocked in his last outing, the right-hander hasn't allowed runs in 11 of 17 first innings. A 53.0% ground-ball rate to right-handed batters has helped him cede only 4 home runs in that split, giving us more confidence in his ability to prevent an Aaron Judge solo shot, too.

If Bassitt is able to hold up his end of the bargain, Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt has a solid chance of finishing the job in the bottom half of the inning. Schmidt has done a great job of limiting loud contact, which has contributed to him putting up a 2.66 xERA that sits in the 92nd percentile.

Schmidt has also been at his best the first time through the order, producing a 3.58 xFIP and 30.8% strikeout rate. The end result has been a NRFI in 10 of 13 starts.

Toronto's offense has admittedly been heating up, but they're still just 18th in YRFI rate (27.9%) and 16th in first-inning runs per game (0.48) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

A pair of southpaws will take the mound to begin this Milwaukee Brewers-New York Mets matchup, and they should be able to post zeros on the scoreboard in the first inning.

Mets starter David Peterson is allowing just 0.57 HR/9 behind a 56.1% ground-ball rate and 6.1% barrel rate, and suppressing home runs is always a welcome sign for a NRFI. While he doesn't tend to rack up strikeouts, Peterson actually has a massive 29.7% K rate versus left-handed batters, and Milwaukee's lineup tends to slot lefties in two of the first three spots.

Peterson also has a sparkling record in the first inning, logging a NRFI in 14 of 16 starts. Add in that the Brewers are 24th in YRFI rate (24.4%), and it's easy to like his chances of keeping them off the scoreboard early.

Dating back to 2022, Jose Quintana has consistently outperformed ERA estimators, so his 3.30 ERA might not regress as much as we would normally expect. Above-average marks in barrel rate (6.9%), hard-hit rate (38.6%), and ground-ball rate (44.9%) all help his cause, and he's another guy who isn't giving up many dingers (0.90 HR/9).

Quintana has recorded a scoreless first inning in 8 of 11 starts, and he'll face a Mets lineup that's 21st in YRFI rate (26.4%).

Citi Field continues to be one of the league's most pitcher-friendly venues, further aiding these pitchers in a NRFI.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.