3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 7/3/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Colt Keith to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Jake Irvin is expected to be on the bump for the Washington Nationals on Thursday, which means the Detroit Tigers are in a fantastic spot to hit multiple homers. While I wouldn't blame anyone for taking Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson to hit a dinger in this contest, Colt Keith stands out at his odds with Irvin having woeful splits versus left-handed hitters.

On the season, Irvin is coughing up a .352 wOBA, 1.82 HR/9, and 46.4% flyball rate to lefties, and Keith is projected to bat leadoff against right-handed pitchers -- at least until Kerry Carpenter returns from the injured list. Keith also sports better numbers versus righties on the road, registering a .389 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and .210 ISO in that split (compared to a .321 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and .159 ISO against righties at home).

Aside from Keith having a decent chance at five-plus plate appearances due to being on the visiting team, it'll be warm and humid with winds blowing to right field at Nationals Park on Thursday. And on top of Washington's bullpen logging the worst HR/9 (2.15), third-worst barrel rate (8.9%), and second-worst hard-hit rate (44.7%) over the last 30 days, the Nationals don't have many lefty relievers to deploy, so Keith's chances of being pinch-hit for isn't extremely high.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+500)

We backed Jo Adell to hit a dinger on Wednesday and he didn't come through, but he still had three batted balls that were put in play at 97-plus MPH. Taking that into account, we're going right back to Adell on Thursday, especially in a favorable matchup versus Bryce Elder.

Although Elder is sitting in the 84th percentile in groundball rate (50.9%), he's also in the 5th percentile in xERA (5.70), 28th percentile in strikeout rate (19.0%), 24th percentile in barrel rate (10.2%), and 10th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.2%). In addition to Elder permitting a .381 wOBA and 2.17 HR/9 to righties (compared to a .357 wOBA and 1.47 HR/9 to lefties), he's given up six homers across his last four starts, including three long balls in his most recent outing versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

Against right-handed batters, Elder throws his sinker 52.8% of the time and his slider 41.1% of the time. Meanwhile, the slider is what we're focused on with Adell, as the hard-hitting slugger is sporting a whopping .613 ISO, .592 wOBA, 20.0% barrel rate, and 60.0% hard-hit rate versus sliders from right-handed hurlers in 2025.

Andy Pages to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Even though I don't love these odds for Andy Pages, he profiles as someone who could have a notable performance with Aaron Civale set to start for the Chicago White Sox. Whether it be with the Milwaukee Brewers or White Sox, Civale has surrendered a .376 wOBA, 1.74 HR/9, and 52.8% flyball rate to right-handed hitters (compared to a .347 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9, and 45.7% flyball rate to left-handed hitters) this season.

As for Pages, he's showing reverse splits at the plate, earning an impressive .372 wOBA, 140 wRC+, and .246 ISO against righties (compared to a .325 wOBA, 108 wRC+, and .140 ISO against lefties). Furthermore, Pages performs even better versus right-handed pitchers in home games, as he's tallying a .446 wOBA, 190 wRC+, and .364 ISO in that split in 2025.

Given the injury to Max Muncy on Wednesday, we should see Pages bat higher in the lineup, improving his chances of seeing five-plus plate appearances. To put the cherry on top, Pages also has a .222 ISO or better and 8.3% barrel rate or better against all four of Civale's primary pitches (cutter, four-seam fastball, sinker, and slider) versus right-handed hitters since the start of the 2025 campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.