Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Prop Bet for Super Bowl 54 May Be Hindered By 49ers' Ability to Defend Big Play

Max Staley
Patrick Mahomes launches a pass against the Tennessee Titans.
Patrick Mahomes launches a pass against the Tennessee Titans. / Joe Robbins/Getty Images
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In many ways, Super Bowl LIV is a matchup of contrasting styles. The San Francisco 49ers have attempted just 27 passes in the postseason, while the Kansas City Chiefs have thrown 35 passes in each playoff game.

According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, it's also matchup of the league's second-best passing offense (KC) against the second-best passing defense (SF).

More specifically, we'll get to see the NFL's most explosive quarterback face off against a secondary that excels at stopping big-play threats.

Patrick Mahomes has a ridiculous 14 touchdown passes on throws that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air this season. Notably, that's five more than anyone else. The 49ers, meanwhile, have allowed just 13 such completions this season, which is the best mark in the NFL.

The 49ers' ability to defend against the big play suggests that it may tough for Mahomes to hit the over on his longest completion prop bet, which has an over/under set at 43.5 yards on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Interestingly, SF has only allowed one completion of at least 44 yards over its last five games (including the playoffs). That came on a 65-yard completion in what was essentially garbage time of the NFC Championship Game.

However, the 49ers might have a tougher time containing Mahomes, who has at least one completion of 44 yards or more in three of his last five games, and at least one 40-yard completion in four of those five.

It seems like this is truly an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Whichever team wins this particular matchup could be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come Sunday.


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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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