Statistically, Patrick Mahomes took a bit of a step back in 2019. Of course, some of that came because injuries led to him playing only 14 games, and some of that came because it's almost impossible to repeat a season as strong as he had in 2018 (5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns).
But now, with 2020 passing props released on FanDuel Sportsbook, Mahomes is being seriously disrespected by his passing yardage over/under.
Mahomes' prop for passing yards is set at over/under 4,499.5 yards. Compared to his 4,031 in 2019, that may seem reasonable. But again, he missed two games last season, and his 287.5 yards per game actually put him on a 16-game pace for 4,600 — easily clearing this prop.
And that is before we even account for the fact that one of his starts was cut short just 20 snaps in when he got hurt in Week 7. If we remove that contest, his 304.2 yards per game had him on pace for 4,868 yards.
Interestingly, we don't see the same disrespect in his touchdown prop. Even just taking his 13 games, Mahomes was only on 16-game pace for 31 scores, but his over/under is set at 35.5.
FanDuel Sportsbook even has Mahomes as the favorite to take home the NFL MVP award.
All of this adds up to his passing yardage over/under not making a whole lot of sense. Mahomes is one of the most productive players in the NFL, and that low projection is downright disrespectful.
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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.