As we enter Week 4, the NFL MVP conversation is beginning to take real shape, and it doesn't look too much different than 2018, at least when you consider who's leading the race.
Mahomes opened as the favorite to repeat as NFL MVP at +600, and since then, his play has caused those odds to improve dramatically. Mahomes is currently the heavy favorite at +155.
While the man at the top has remained the same since last season, the names behind him have seen some shifts, even from week to week in this season. While the likes of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers opened up the season with the second- and third-best odds, they have ceded those positions to two other quarterbacks by Week 4.
Baltimore Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson opened as +6500, and he has seen a significant improvement in his odds every week as he continues to light up defenses, and now sits at +950. Right behind him is Dak Prescott, who has dazzled as the Dallas Cowboys' starting quarterback, leading them to a 3-0 record to open the year and now has +1000 odds to win MVP after opening at +5000.
Rodgers (+1300) and Brady (+1500) still sit in fourth and fifth place, respectively, but have clearly taken a backseat to the gaudy numbers of Mahomes, Jackson and Prescott.
Carson Wentz (+1700), Deshaun Watson (+2000), Jared Goff (+2500), Russell Wilson (+2800) and Jimmy Garoppolo (+3300) are next in line behind that top-5 list, which brings us to our first non-quarterback on the list, Alvin Kamara (+3800).
Kamara could present an interesting value pick. After losing starting quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury for an estimated six weeks, Kamara is in a position to be a major difference maker for the New Orleans Saints. If he puts up incredible numbers, all while maintaining the Saints as the well-oiled offensive machine they have been under Brees, he could be jutted into the top of this MVP conversation.
It will surely be tough for anyone to catch Mahomes if he continues to produce at the rate he has, but there is certainly an opportunity for many of these guys to make a legitimate case as the 2019 season rolls on.
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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.