Islanders vs Lightning Odds, Betting Lines, Picks & Preview for NHL Playoffs Game 6 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Elisha Twerski
New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning - Game Five
New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning - Game Five / Mike Carlson/Getty Images

Islanders vs Lightning NHL Game 6 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 6 (Lightning Lead 3-2)
New York Islanders (32-17-7) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3)
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Venue: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Islanders vs Lightning Odds, Moneyline and Total

All Islanders-Lightning odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Islanders +126 | Lightning -148
Spread: Islanders +1.5 (-235) | Lightning -1.5 (+190)
Total: 5.5 – Over +128 | Under -158
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Lightning -115 | Islanders +1200

Islanders vs Lightning Predictions and Picks

  • Islanders +128

New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning News, Analysis, and Picks

Things don't get much worse than what we saw in Game 5 between the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Islanders were trounced on Tuesday night, getting humbled in an 8-0 defeat. Now, they'll be tasked with turning things around in a hurry for Game 6 as they try to fend off elimination for the first time this postseason.

The Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum has been a tough place to play for visitors this postseason. The Islanders allowed four goals at five-on-five in their playoff home opener and since then have allowed just eight goals in seven games at five-on-five. That low-scoring trend has been facilitated by two factors – effective defensive coverage and above-average goaltending. New York has limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in six of their eight home playoff games, including a combined 14 chances through two games this series.

The Islanders have also been effective at limiting chances from the periphery, holding their opponents to 22 or fewer scoring chances in three of their last four. That tidy defensive play has made things easy for Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin, who currently have the fourth-best home-ice save percentage this postseason – second-best of teams still in the playoffs.

It's unclear who the Islanders will turn to after both goalies were shelled in Game 5, but whoever starts should expect to have a much better performance than what we saw last time out, as both goalies posted save percentages of 81.8% or worse after Varlamov was yanked in the first period. The Islanders' save percentage is directly correlated with the Lightning's shooting percentage, which remains elevated.

In total, the Lightning are scoring on 11.4% of their shots this postseason, marginally ahead of their 10.6% shooting percentage from the regular season. That growth was somewhat expected after the Lightning benefitted from Nikita Kucherov's return to the fold for the playoffs after sitting out the entire regular season with a hip injury. In combination with their save percentage, the Lightning have posted a 1.048 PDO this postseason, which signals that they are getting an unsustainable amount of production on both ends of the ice. In addition, Tampa has posted an in-game PDO above 1.000 in eight of their last 11 games, for an even higher 1.056 PDO over that span. Their PDO can climb higher, but it's more likely that we start to see regression after the Bolts hit their crescendo with a playoff-best 1.190 PDO in Game 5.

Game 6 is a tough spot for the Islanders as they attempt to pick up the pieces of a devastating loss in Game 5. However, they will benefit from home-ice advantage tonight, where they have been effective at limiting the Lightning's chances. Of course, the Islanders' success is tied heavily to how well Varlamov or Sorokin plays, but you can expect the team to make their job a lot easier tonight on Long Island. 

Coupled with Tampa's impending regression, there's reason to back the Islanders as home underdogs.

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