History Points to Under Hitting in LSU vs Alabama Week 11 College Football Game

BATON ROUGE, LA - NOVEMBER 05:  Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide shakes hands with head coach Ed Orgeron of the LSU Tigers after their 10-0 win at Tiger Stadium on November 5, 2016 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

This Saturday, the eyes of the college football universe will be on Tuscaloosa as No. 1 LSU travels to take on No. 2 Alabama. While it is fair to expect a great game, history tells us not to expect a shoot-out.

Currently, the total for Saturday's game sits at 62.5, a number that makes sense when you see that Alabama is averaging the most points in college football at 48.6 points per game (PPG) and LSU is averaging the fifth most at 44.1.

Looking at history, however, this number is a lot more suspect. Only once in the century-long rivalry has a game gone over 60 points combined, which means just 1.2 percent of the time have these teams combined to hit this total.

Additionally, when you look at both team's strong defenses, it further supports the under. Alabama is the No. 8 scoring defense in the nation, surrendering 15.2 PPG, while LSU sits at No. 23, surrendering 20.9 PPG.

Perhaps, working in favor of the over, is the fact that this will be a matchup between two of the top three players in the Heisman odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. If Tua and Burrows get hot, this could be the second time in a century we see an Alabama-LSU shootout.

With that being said, history tells us this game will be a low-scoring affair. Although, no matter what the total, it will be worth tuning into the biggest game of the year.

Join FanDuel Sportsbook Today. New users get a risk-free bet up to $500. Join Now.

Stuart Easton is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Stuart Easton also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username stueast13. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Trending Now

More Fantasy Stories