3 Season-Long NFL Prop Bets that Still Have Value After Week 1
Week 1 of the NFL season always brings plenty of shocks and surprises, and every year people seem to overreact to what happens in the first week.
That can create some really interesting betting value if you figure out the spots where a big reaction is warranted and the spots where it's not.
With that in mind, here are five season-long prop bets you should make on FanDuel Sportsbook before Week 2 kicks off.
1. Most Regular Season Receiving Yards: Davante Adams (+1000)
Davante Adams "only" ranked No. 3 in the NFL for receiving yards in Week 1, but a deeper look at his stat line compared to the other elite wideouts makes him the most intriguing bet in the group. He turned in 10 receptions for 141 yards despite only hauling in 58.8% of the targets sent his way. For comparison, none of the seven other players with 120+ yards had a catch rate below 69.2%. That might seem like a bad thing for Adams on the surface, but catch rate is an incredibly high-variance stat on a week-to-week basis. Heck, even Zay Jones had a 67.1% catch rate when playing with Derek Carr last year, and it's pretty safe to assume Adams will settle in with a higher catch rate than Jones. His 17 targets were tops in the NFL, and his target share (portion of a team's targets a player saw) checked in at an absurd 48.6%. There is clearly no delay in making him the focal point of this offense, and playing in an AFC West division that should cater to plenty of shootouts, Adams has all the makings of a league-leading receiver.
2. Most Regular Season Sacks: Von Miller (+1200)
Von Miller kicked off his first season as a Buffalo Bill with 2.0 sacks in Week 1, showing he hasn't lost a step at 33 years old. Betting a sack total is more than betting an individual player's skill, though. Pass rushing often works as a team concept (if a QB has room to step up in the pocket or roll out they could avoid a sack), and simply having the opportunity to rush the opposing passer often is important. Well Miller obviously has the individual skill, and Bills other than Miller combined to hit Matthew Stafford a ridiculous 13 times in Week 1. The Bills are also Super Bowl favorites, meaning they should be playing with plenty of big leads all season. Big leads mean forcing opponents into obvious passing situations, which means plenty of opportunities for Miller to pin his ears back and rush the passer without worrying about defending the run. Miller checks all the boxes.
3. Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Joe Burrow (+650)
A loss to the underdog Pittsburgh Steelers may have soured some people on the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, but let's not forget that an elite defense is what has kept the quarterback-deficient Steelers from being a laughing stock for the last few years. Burrow struggled with sacks (7) and interceptions (4), but still racked up 338 yards passing — checking in at No. 4 in the NFL. Like we outlined with Adams, poor efficiency over a small sample points to a potential bounce-back spot, and Burrow had by far the fewest adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A; 3.7) of anyone who finished with 300-plus passing yards in Week 1. Cincy ranked top-12 in pass rate in Week 1 despite not suffering a blowout loss (five of the more pass-happy teams lost by 13-plus points), showing that they plan on slinging it all season. Week 1 struggles or not, a passing title is still very much a possibility for Burrow this year.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.