The Buffalo Bills had plenty of reasons to celebrate in 2019, finishing with their best record since 1999 and making the playoffs for the second time in three years. However, the 2021 Super Bowl Odds are not respecting that success, as they sit at +2500 to make the championship game and +5000 to win it, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Bills' path to the Super Bowl won't be an easy one. They are 3-point underdogs on the road against the Houston Texans and will most likely face the No. 1 seed and overall favorite Baltimore Ravens on the road even if they do defeat the Texans. The Bills have also not made it out of the Wild Card round since 1995.
Still, Buffalo has more going for it than you would think. By point differential, the Texans are actually the worst team in the NFL Playoffs at -7. Houston advanced to the playoffs by winning four straight one-score games and is far from a juggernaut. By weighted DVOA, which gives precedence to recent games, Buffalo ranks eighth while Houston is just 17th. Buffalo also slots in higher than the Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, and Green Bay Packers by this metric.
Buffalo will rely heavily on its defense, which ranks No. 5 in DVOA and has shut down teams for much of the season. The Bills' defense actually matches up quite well against the Baltimore Ravens—in Week 14, they held the Ravens to just 257 yards of offense in a 7-point loss.
However, for the Bills to win the Super Bowl, they must get a much better performance from quarterback Josh Allen, who has been inaccurate and inconsistent at times this season. In that game against Baltimore, he went just 17-for-39 on pass attempts, and he has struggled against good teams this season. The Bills' offensive line also needs to play better, as they rank in the bottom third of adjusted sack rate.
If the Bills can continue to play solid defense and Josh Allen finds a new level, they could be a dangerous team in the playoffs. Bills Mafia certainly believes that they have a better chance of winning it all than the odds suggest, and the underlying stats seem intriguing enough.
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Tristan Jung is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Tristan Jung also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username tristan1117. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.