5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 6/29/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

Henry Davis to Hit a Home Run (+870)

Totally understood if you're a more casual baseball fan who just asked themselves, "who is Henry Davis?"

Well, the former top prospect is tied for second on the Pittsburgh Pirates in homers against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days. The problem? He's only mashed one. A .428 OPS in this same period is also a tough sell, but he's actually making great contact in this span of 42 plate appearances (PAs). 60.9% of balls in play have been in the air, and 39.1% of them have been "hard-hit" ones.

I wanted a Bucco opposite Frankie Montas. It was borderline sorcery that Montas escaped his season debut with five scoreless considering ghastly flyball (58.3%) and barrel (16.7%) rates allowed. This came off the heels of a season where he coughed up 1.43 HR/9.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections have taken note of Davis' contact splits and expect 0.13 median homers from him today. That implies closer to +720 for a long ball.

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

Under 9.5 Runs (-120)

Will we get a "normal" baseball game at Camden Yards today?

The Baltimore Orioles posted 22 runs on Friday, and the Tampa Bay Rays responded with 11 on Saturday. Beyond wondering if either team has a bit of fatigue, both starting pitchers today can be part of a responsible affair.

A breakout season for Tampa's Taj Bradley hasn't happened, but Bradley still owns a respectable 4.21 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and has done a good job suppressing his hard-hit rate allowed (37.6%). With respective marks of a 4.25 SIERA and 37.3% hard-hit rate allowed, the same can be said about Baltimore's Dean Kremer.

Both of these bullpens rank in the top eight of reliever SIERA over the past 30 days -- despite the zaniness of this series thus far.

These are two solid season-long offenses against right-handed pitching, but a total encroaching 10 seems like a bit of an overreaction to these recent shootouts.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (+118)

It looks like it'll be lefty Justin Wrobleski getting the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers today. I'll take my chances with he and Kris Bubic to play five and dive on the under.

Bubic has taken the reigns as the Kansas City Royals' ace, spinning a beautiful 3.46 SIERA as we approach the All-Star break. Unbelievably, the southpaw's 14.1% swinging-strike rate shows he might be underperforming in the K column (26.0%) rate, too.

Wrobleski should also have no issues. In a limited sample of 29.1 IP, Wrobleski's 3.39 SIERA is actually better; he just hasn't done quite the same job limiting hard contact (47.1% rate). Luckily for him, the K.C. offense has a pitiful .651 OPS against lefties in the past 30 days as you flip Vinnie Pasquantino to his less-favorable split.

The Dodgers' bullpen has been a mess the past month (4.07 SIERA), but I'll trust these two to guide us through five at plus money.

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Astros -1.5 (+134)

I probably sound like a broken record on the site about the Chicago Cubs against left-handed pitching.

It worked again on Friday with Brandon Walter, and now, one of the games premier southpaws, Framber Valdez, will get to attack this Cubs lineup that has a bottom-10 OPS (.622) and strikeout rate (24.0%) against left-handed pitching in the past 30 days.

Valdez's 3.44 SIERA is strong form again in 2025, and the opposite can be said for Chicago's Jameson Taillon. Taillon has had massive contact issues we'll get to in a moment, but above all, his 5.57 road ERA is substantially worse than how he performs at Wrigley Field (3.45 ERA).

After a horrid early-season stretch, Houston's .712 OPS against righties in the past 30 days is more normal. I think they can scratch across runs against a struggling Taillon to support a quality start from Framber.

Isaac Parades to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Speaking of Taillon, I'd be remiss not to dip into the dinger market against him.

He's ceded a whopping 2.08 HR/9 this campaign, making it peculiar the shortest Houston Astros bat for a bomb is +420. Right-handed bats have accounted for 2.54 HR/9, and Taillon's flyball (45.5%) and barrel (11.2%) rates allow show that these bombs are no fluke.

If I am looking to the 'Stros for power, Isaac Paredes has usually been the answer this year. Paredes has cooled off a bit but maintained a .785 OPS, .221 ISO, 44.0% flyball rate, and 34.0% hard-hit rate against righties over his last 79 PAs. The loft is particularly attractive when Taillon is serving meatballs.

Our projections expect 0.26 median home runs from the third baseman on Sunday, implying closer to +337 odds for one if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.