3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 6/30/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (-104)

After totaling only 3.0 runs per game over a five-game span, the New York Yankees erupted with 12 runs on Sunday. While Max Scherzer always draws attention, the Yankees are facing him at a good time.

Scherzer made his debut with the Toronto Blue Jays on March 29 but then missed nearly three months of action from a thumb injury. He made a deeper start than expected in his return on June 25, pitching for five innings, but Scherzer ceded six hits and three earned runs. Over a small two-start sample size, Scherzer has a 5.63 ERA, 6.62 xERA, 5.19 SIERA, and 4.98 xFIP.

Keep in mind the Yankees post 5.08 runs per game (fourth-most), putting Scherzer in more danger. Furthermore, New York is in the top three of runs above average against three of his top four pitches (four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter).

Scherzer has allowed two homers over two starts, giving up 2.25 home runs per nine innings. He ceded marks of 1.45 and 1.65 in the last two seasons. Toronto's starter is on pace to finish in the bottom half of hard-hit and barrel percentages allowed.

The Yankees are a nightmare matchup, boasting the second-highest SLG and isolated power paired with the third-highest home run rate. Another big scoring night should be in the cards for New York.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

Orioles Moneyline (-112)

Two southpaw starters will be on the mound between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers. With each team in the bottom 10 of runs scored, which squad can find more success en route to a win?

The Rangers' offense will likely fall short against Baltimore's Trevor Rogers. He's excelled through three starts with a 1.62 ERA. However, we should expect some regression considering the small sample size, although he has a 2.68 xERA and 3.80 SIERA. The hot streak could keep up for now with Texas carrying the fourth-fewest runs scored and seventh-lowest batting average against lefties. The Rangers have the fewest runs above average against Rogers' top two pitches, as well (four-seam fastball and changeup).

The O's have struggled against left-handed hurlers, too (sixth-fewest runs). However, Patrick Corbin's numbers are mediocre at best with a 4.24 ERA, 4.26 xERA, 4.41 SIERA, and 4.25 xFIP. He's also allowed at least four earned runs in back-to-back starts, carrying an 8.10 ERA during the span. Baltimore is in the top half of runs above average against two of his three most-used pitches (slider and cutter). Corbin has permitted 1.41 home runs per nine innings, and Baltimore is in the top half of SLG, isolated power, and home run percentage.

In a clash between two batting orders that struggle against southpaws, the Orioles have the more favorable matchup -- turning my attention to the moneyline.

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners

Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings Run Line (-113)

The Kansas City Royals-Seattle Mariners game should be a low-scoring one, with under 7.5 runs sitting at -122 odds. Michael Wacha carries a solid 3.33 ERA while George Kirby seems to be rounding into form after making his 2025 debut in late May. Which starter is bound to win their matchup?

Focusing on the first five innings run line, Seattle carrying -113 odds to cover -0.5 is a bet I want to back.

Kirby has a concerning 5.40 ERA, but that's down to 3.54 over his previous five. Allowing at least five earned runs in each of his first two starts of the season has greatly inflated his ERA, but Kirby seems to be back on track to mirroring his 3.53 ERA from a season ago.

Kansas City touts the seventh-fewest runs above average against his top three pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, and sinker). Kirby still has some concerns against sluggers as he is allowing 1.72 dingers per nine innings while in the 35th and 33rd percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed, respectively. However, the Royals are in the bottom five of SLG, isolated power, and home run percentage.

Wacha touts a 3.33 ERA, but his 4.23 SIERA and 4.24 xFIP suggest negative regression. That's come to fruition over his last four starts with a 4.63 ERA in that time. Wacha's current form paired with Seattle logging 6.3 runs per game over its previous 10 is a disaster waiting to happen. Furthermore, the Mariners are in the top 11 of runs above average against two of Wacha's three most-used pitches (changeup and cutter).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.