Golden Knights vs. Canadiens Prediction, Odds, Betting Lines & Picks for NHL Playoffs Game 5 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Elisha Twerski
Vegas Golden Knights v Montreal Canadiens - Game Four
Vegas Golden Knights v Montreal Canadiens - Game Four / Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images

Golden Knights vs. Canadiens NHL Game 5 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 5 (Series Tied 2-2)
Vegas Golden Knights (40-14-2) vs. Canadiens (24-21-11)
Date: Tuesday, June 22
Time: 9:00 pm ET
Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Golden Knights vs. Canadiens Moneyline, Total and Odds

All Golden Knights vs Canadiens odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Golden Knights -250 | Canadiens +205
Golden Knights -1.5 (+126) | Canadiens +1.5 (-152)
5.5 — Over +124 | Under -152
Odds to win the Stanley Cup:
Golden Knights +145 | Canadiens +950

Golden Knights vs. Canadiens Predictions and Picks

  • Canadiens Moneyline (+205)
  • Over 5.5 (+124)

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Montreal Canadiens News, Analysis, and Picks

Seventeen high-danger chances at five-on-five weren't enough for the Montreal Canadiens to break through in Game 4, but it did perpetuate some impressive metrics from the Habs over their recent sample. Montreal set the high mark for high-danger chances at five-on-five this postseason, making it three straight games against the Vegas Golden Knights with 10 or more such opportunities. It was also the sixth time in seven games that they attempted at least 10, with a seven-game average of 11.9 quality chances per game. That offensive production helped the Habs to their best expected goals-for percentage of the semifinals with an in-game mark of 59.8%.

Offensive metrics are only half of the expected goals-for percentage equation, and it also reflects another strong defensive performance from Montreal. The Canadiens limited the Golden Knights to just two pitiful high-danger chances at five-on-five and 21 scoring chances. That represents the third time in four games that the Knights were held to 21 or fewer scoring chances, and the second time in three games they had nine or fewer high-danger chances.

There's something to be said about riding a heater in Vegas, and that's exactly what the Knights have done over their recent sample. Vegas has been objectively outplayed in five of their last six games but has collected four of a possible six victories. They've compiled an unsustainable 1.042 PDO during that sample, thanks to a delicate balance between inflated output and timely goaltending performances.

Home-ice hasn't been the safe-haven that it was for the Knights during the regular season. Vegas has been outplayed at five-on-five in three straight games and four of nine home games this postseason. In addition, their actual goals-for percentage is almost 4.5% higher than expected, and their PDO remains above 1.020 -- both of which are indicators for regression.

Robin Lehner was a difference-maker in Game 4, stopping 27 of 28 shots, but he had very different metrics leading up to that game. In the four games prior, Lehner stopped only 84.3% of shots while allowing a 4.48 goals-against average. Lehner isn't as bad as his four-game sample implies, but it does illustrate the hot and cold dichotomy that we've seen from the goaltender this season. Lehner has put up a below-average save percentage in eight of his 21 appearances this season, with six of those performances being 88.0% or less. It's been all or nothing for Lehner this season, and if he's not on his game, it will cost the Knights.

Montreal has been the better team in three of four games this series but still finds themselves level with the Golden Knights heading back to Vegas. The Knights are leaning into their luck a little too heavily and are at risk of entering a correction phase at the worst time.

This line should continue to move further in favor of the Knights, meaning that if you're planning on making a play on the Habs, you could get a better price by waiting. Nevertheless, these teams continue to put forth strong offensive efforts, and both goalies can't be expected to continue to stop everything. The line on the over has come down relative to Game 4 and could come down further, closer to puck drop. Habs and the over tonight.

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