College Football ATS Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
By David Hayes
Now that we have a full list of college football's Week 4 betting spreads, totals and moneylines available on FanDuel Sportsbook, we can finally dive into the handful of matchups that can potentially be capitalized upon against the spread (ATS).
After The Duel staff missed on only one of our ATS matchups to exploit in Week 3, here are four Week 4 college football games to keep an eye on this weekend.
1. Southern Miss @ No. 2 Alabama (-39.5)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 12 p.m. EST
While Alabama is no stranger to blowing opponents out of the water for the better part of the last decade, the emergence of Heisman hopeful quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has taken the Crimson Tide's offense to a new level. Tagovailoa isn't likely to play beyond the third quarter of this game if the Tide are rolling over Southern Miss as they are expected to, but Bama's backup QB Mac Jones and the Tide's second rotations still outscored New Mexico State, 24-10, in the second half of Bama's most recent home game in Week 2 after the Tide went into the half leading 38-0. The last time Southern Miss made the trip to Tuscaloosa in 2014, the Golden Eagles were sent back to the Magnolia State with a 52-12 loss to Alabama.
2. No. 11 Michigan (+3.5) @ No. 13 Wisconsin
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 12 p.m. EST
Saturday's showdown between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines in Madison is arguably the most anticipated matchup of Week 4. While Wisconsin currently stands as a 3.5-point home favorite, and the Badgers have certainly looked like the better team through Week 2, Wisconsin's recent track record against the Big Ten East's top-caliber teams presents a troubling pattern. Over the past seven seasons, Wisconsin has gone 10-12 against teams currently in the Big Ten East division. However, if you remove the likes of Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana (who all combine for a 31-98 conference record since the 2014 season), the Badgers' cross-divisional Big Ten record skids to an ugly 2-12. Even with the home-field advantage a venue like Camp Randall Stadium brings, Wisconsin should be on upset alert, as the Badgers could be in for an unpleasant surprise at the hands of a Michigan team this Saturday.
3. No. 15 UCF (-12) @ Pittsburgh
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 3:30 p.m. EST
Despite losing their star QB McKenzie Milton to a gruesome leg injury last season, who is still rehabbing toward a return, the Knights have reloaded with freshman QB Dillon Gabriel. Behind Gabriel's nine touchdowns, zero interceptions and 719 passing yards through his first three collegiate games, the Knights have seemingly picked up right where they left off last season, most recently pummeling Stanford 45-27 at home in Week 3. While Pitt certainly played up against No. 13 Penn State on the road in the Panthers' 17-10 loss last Saturday, it's hard to take any credit away from how well UCF has played in all three games this season. If the Knights and their No. 6 scoring offense in the country (51.7 points per game) can beat Stanford, 45-27, then UCF should have what it takes to roll Pitt and its No. 126 scoring offense (14.7 PPG) on the road this Saturday.
4. Old Dominion (+30.5) @ No. 21 Virginia
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21, 7 p.m. EST
Virginia's football program is undoubtedly trending in the right direction, and this year's Cavaliers are most likely the best UVA team we've seen in some time. However, after battling a declining Florida State program, 31-24, into the final moments at home in Week 3, Virginia would be wise not to overlook Old Dominion in Week 4. Just ask fellow in-state rival Virginia Tech how that went for the Hokies last season, as the 0-4 Monarchs stunned the 27.5-point favored Hokies, 49-35, at home in Norfolk. This year's rematch of that upset also saw a 29.5-point underdog Old Dominion keep things tight on the road in Blacksburg in a 31-17 loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2.
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David Hayes is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David Hayes also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username DavidWHayes. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.