The over/under is an art completely separate from actually picking football games themselves. Bad teams could be incredible values on over or under hits, while good teams might be incredibly difficult to predict.
In 2018, the best NFL teams to take the over or under on are a mixed bag compared to their straight-up records.
Best record when betting the over through Week 12:— The Duel (@TheDuelSports) November 28, 2018
Best record when betting the under through Week 12:
Despite all the high-powered offenses, the New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams are all missing from on the list of best teams for the over. The Saints have hit only five overs in 11 games, while the Chiefs and Rams have hit six. The Chiefs are the most surprising of all as they have a bad defense to pair with their great offense.
The top two teams for overs this season simply have bad defenses. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the No. 32 and 31 scoring defenses in the league. This essentially means that they're hitting overs primarily because the other team is just pouring points on their heads.
The Chicago Bears are the opposite, though, given they have the No. 2 scoring defense, but the No. 5 scoring offense. The defense keeps the over/under number low and then the offense does enough to surpass it.
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Ian McCafferty is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian McCafferty also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username