Cover Photo: John Grieshop/Getty Images


The over/under is an art completely separate from actually picking football games themselves. Bad teams could be incredible values on over or under hits, while good teams might be incredibly difficult to predict. 


In 2018, the best NFL teams to take the over or under on are a mixed bag compared to their straight-up records. 

Despite all the high-powered offenses, the New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams are all missing from on the list of best teams for the over. The ​Saints have hit only five overs in 11 games, while the Chiefs and Rams have hit six. The Chiefs are the ​most surprising of all as they have a bad defense to pair with their great offense. 


The top two teams for overs this season simply have bad defenses. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the No. 32 and 31 scoring defenses in the league. This essentially means that they're hitting overs primarily because the other team is just pouring points on their heads.

The Chicago Bears are the opposite, though, given they have the No. 2 scoring defense, but the No. 5 scoring offense. The defense keeps the over/under number low and then the offense does enough to surpass it. 


The best teams at hitting the under are three teams with anemic offenses and the New England Patriots. New England has the No. 7 scoring offense but the No. 11 scoring defense and has done just enough to keep a few extra games at the under. 


Over/unders are as volatile as they come thanks to the multitude of different ways that teams can combine for point totals. However, at this point you have to feel better if you're picking an over for a Tampa Bay or Cincinnati game or an under in a Tenneseee Titans game. 


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Ian McCafferty is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian McCafferty also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username itmccaff. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.