NFL home underdogs went 4-2 ATS in Week 6. This brings the ATS record on the year to 20-8 (71.4%)— The Duel (@TheDuelSports) October 16, 2018
It may have something to do with the increased scoring in the league this year due to all the rule changes making it more difficult to play defense and Vegas has yet to adjust. The underdogs are having an easier time covering spreads, especially at home.
A common trap game in sports betting is when you see a clearly superior team favored on the road by not as many points as you would expect. That's when conventional sports betting wisdom says to fight the urge and take the home underdog.
It has been paying dividends big time for anyone willing to follow that path. A 71 percent winning percentage is what pro bettors dream of, but almost never accomplish.
Six weeks in this is now officially a trend. It's time to drop the fear of betting underdogs and go all in because eventually Vegas is going to catch on and no one wants to miss out on a wave producing 71 percent winners.
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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.