4 Best Prop Bets for Texans vs Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Game

Fresh off a Wild Card Weekend win over the Buffalo Bills, the AFC South champion Houston Texans will take to the road for a matchup with the No. 2 seed Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs are listed as 9.5-point favorites in this game on FanDuel Sportsbook.

If you're looking to an alternative way to wager on this one, here are four of the best prop bets for Sunday's game.

1. Damien Williams Rushing Yards: Over 52.5 (-112)

Damien Williams runs the ball against the Chargers in Week 11. / Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs' RB situation has been muddy this season, but down the stretch a healthy Damien Williams started to dominate the volume. He's the only back on the team to have played over 55 percent of the offensive snaps in any game, and he eclipsed 65 percent three times in the second half of the season. Those three games saw him tally 125, 77 and 124 yards. The Chiefs could easily fall into a run-heavy game flow as heavy favorites, and the Texans' defense checks in at 22nd against the run in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric.

2. Carlos Hyde Rushing Yards: Under 63.5 (-112)

Carlos Hyde against the Titans in Week 17. / Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

On the other side of the coin, the Texans may have to abandon the run as heavy underdogs. We saw a drastic difference in Carlos Hyde's volume in the regular season, averaging 18.3 carries per game in wins, but just 10.2 carries and 48.8 yards per game in losses. Yes, he cooked KC for 116 yards in Week 6, but that kind of production for Hyde has generally relied on the Texans playing with a lead. Given how closely tied his rushing numbers are to the results of the game, the line on the under here looks a lot more appealing than the -440 KC moneyline.

3. Duke Johnson Rushing + Receiving Yards: Over 44.5 (-102)

Duke Johnson against the Titans in Week 17. / Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Continuing on that same train of thought, the Texans being heavy underdogs makes Duke Johnson's yardage prop interesting, especially considering the odds favor the under. The opposite of Hyde, Johnson's receiving-heavy workload lets him shine in losses, averaging a combined 61.7 rushing and receiving yards per game in six defeats in the regular season. Each of Johnson's four highest (and five of his six highest) snap counts came in losses this year, and as 9.5-point underdogs he should play a big role in the Texans' offense this week.

4. First Touchdown Scorer: Travis Kelce (+600)

Travis Kelce runs after a catch against the Chargers. / Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Travis Kelce is tied with Williams for the best odds of being the game's first touchdown scorer. Kelce was second in the NFL with 12 targets on snaps inside the 10-yard line in the regular season, and if KC gets into scoring range early (likely, considering how heavily they're favored) there's a good chance Kelce gets an early crack at finding the end zone. The Texans also rank worse in pass defense DVOA (26th) than they do against the run, suggesting that, while the game is close, KC's offense could skew more pass-heavy than usual.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.