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3 Best Prop Bets for Jaguars vs Bengals Thursday Night Football Week 4

Max Staley
Three best prop bets for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Thursday Night Football.
Three best prop bets for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Thursday Night Football. / Joe Sargent/Getty Images

The last two No. 1 overall picks square off on Thursday Night Football. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. It's safe to say the 2020 draftee has the edge right now.

Thanks to a surprisingly hot start to the year, Cincy enters this one as 7.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Bengals are looking to prove they're for real in their first primetime game of the season, while the Jags are looking for a spark to turn around an 0-3 start. And if you're looking to put a little juice on the Clash of the Cats, here are three of the best prop bets to target on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jaguars vs Bengals Prop Bets Tonight

3. Joe Mixon - Total Receptions: Under 2.5 (+122)

Joe Mixon is finally being treated like a bell-cow back. He's played 79% of his team's offensive snaps thus far, shattering his previous high (60%). However, that has not translated to a bigger role in the passing game. After catching each of his 4 targets in Week 1, Mixon has only seen 3 targets (2 receptions) over his last two outings. There are plenty of signs that suggest Week 1 was the anomaly. Burrow was frequently forced into check downs, taking 5 sacks from the Vikings. That won't happen with the Jags, who have 4 sacks all season. The Bengals are also 7.5-point favorites, so we should be looking at a much more run-heavy approach than usual. And even when the team does need to throw, RB Chris Evans could steal some of those looks. The rookie's role has expanded every week this year, and his 3 targets over the last two games match Mixon's output. His role might continue to grow as Cincy looks to spell Mixon from what should be a heavier workload than usual. It's a low total, but it's easy to like juiced at +122.

2. Marvin Jones - Receiving Yards: Over 65.5 (-110)

There haven't been many constants on the Jaguars' offense this season. But Marvin Jones Jr. has been the exception to that rule. He's seen at least 8 targets in all three games, turning an average of 9.3 looks into 5.7 receptions for 64.7 yards per outing. His involvement has been even more pronounced recently. Over the last two weeks, Jones has a 29.7% target share, the 17th-highest mark in the league, and his 117 yards account for a whopping 34.7% of Lawrence's passing yards in that time. The rookie QB is averaging 168.5 yards per outing over those two, but the generational prospect is simply too talented to keep that up. Jones' usage will allow him to eclipse 65 yards without breaking a sweat if we get even a little positive regression from Lawrence. Plus, this is a Revenge Game for the former Bengal, so he could be looking to show out at Paul Brown Stadium.

1. Ja'Marr Chase - Total Receptions: Under 4.5 (+114)

Ja'Marr Chase lit it up in his first three games. The rookie is averaging 73.3 receiving yards per outing and he's already hauled in 4 touchdowns. But he's doing that despite unreliable volume. Chase is turning 5.3 targets into 3.7 receptions per game. It's more than just him, though. After leading the league with 41.1 pass attempts per game before getting hurt in 2020, Burrow is down to just 25.0 (No. 29 in the NFL). That's unlikely to change against the Jags. The Bengals are huge favorites, meaning we should expect plenty of rushes as the team protects a lead. And mixing a lack of volume with Chase's role is not a recipe for a big reception total. The former Biletnikoff winner boasts a top-12 average depth of target (aDOT; 16.5) – racking up a ton of downfield receptions isn't easy. Against a bottom-three pass defense by DVOA, Chase has a better chance to make a few big plays and score a touchdown (-110), or hit his yardage prop (68.5), than record 5-plus receptions. Getting it juiced at +114 is the cherry on top.

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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.