The Duel

The Mets Are Being Disrespected in Odds to Win the NL East

Tristan Jung
Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets are aiming for their first playoff appearance since 2016.
Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets are aiming for their first playoff appearance since 2016. / Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Despite all the turmoil that surrounds the New York Mets franchise, their actual baseball team is quite talented. The Mets have extended their contending window by finding a strong group of position players to complement their pitching.

The Mets are currently at +280 to win the NL East on FanDuel Sportsbook. They are behind the Atlanta Braves at +180 and the Washington Nationals at +260. However, given the talent on the Mets' roster, an implied probability of 26.3% seems worse than what should be expected.

By this point, Mets fans are sick of being reminded that, without the epic bullpen collapses, this team could've made the NL Wild Card game or won the division in 2019. They finished 2019 seventh in pitching fWAR and eleventh in batting fWAR, which should be enough to at least make the Wild Card game in most years.

Their individual performances were very impressive. Pete Alonso hit 53 homers and won NL Rookie of the Year. Jacob deGrom won his second Cy Young. Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, and Michael Conforto all had great years. Overall, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projects the Mets to win the NL East, making their status in the odds disrespectful.

Although the Mets are losing some parts, most notably Zack Wheeler, they still have a deep and talented squad. Of course, fans will need to be assured that the bullpen issues, specifically those of closer Edwin Diaz, have been rectified. Hopefully Diaz's results will start matching his incredible peripheral stats and he will return to being a lockdown closer. If he doesn't, the Mets will be quick to call on Seth Lugo, who was excellent last year.

The Mets didn't inspire much confidence by signing Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to fill out their rotation, but both pitchers are not far removed from major league success and are a much better long-term financial move than giving Wheeler $118 million. New York can also expect another good year from Marcus Stroman. Noah Syndergaard should have extra motivation to show he can be an ace entering his contract season. Lastly, the Mets could theoretically get contributions from long-injured players like Yoenis Cespedes and Jed Lowrie.

It won't be easy to upend the Nationals and Braves, but the Mets have the pieces to pull it off. Whenever the season begins, they will be itching to make it happen.

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Tristan Jung is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Tristan Jung also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username tristan1117. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.