Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 1

Aston Villa are at Watford in their season-opening match, their first sans Jack Grealish. How should you bet on Dean Smith's squad?
Aston Villa are at Watford in their season-opening match, their first sans Jack Grealish. How should you bet on Dean Smith's squad? / APImages

Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Brentford vs. Arsenal

Arsenal to win -120

Arsenal are coming off an extremely disappointing season, one where they finished in eighth place in the EPL table with a record of 18W-7D-13L. They will be looking for an improved campaign in 2021-22. Even last season may not have been as bad as it appeared for the Gunners as they finished the year with an expected goal differential of +9.2, per FBRef, which was sixth-best in the league, indicating they may have been victim to some poor fortune.

Arsenal also finished 5-1-0 against the bottom-three teams in the EPL last season, and they have a favorable matchup Friday against promoted Brentford. Brentford finished third in the Championship last season and were promoted via the playoff, so they will certainly be one of the relegation candidates this campaign.

Arsenal have been on a steady decline for the past few years, but they still should have more than enough talent to take care of Brentford. Getting the Gunners to win at almost even odds seems like a great betting opportunity.

Watford vs. Aston Villa

Aston Villa to win +130

Newly promoted Watford take on Aston Villa in their first game of the EPL season in what should be an exciting matchup. Watford face a difficult challenge as a promoted side. Last season two of the three promoted teams were relegated right back down to the Championship, as West Brom and Fulham did not survive.

Aston Villa finished last season in 11th place at 16-7-15 with a +9 goal differential and a +0.1 expected goal differential. Villa lost Jack Grealish on a mega deal to Manchester City, but they are still projected to finish in the top half of the table (-115 odds). Watford are the team most likely to be relegated (-115).

Villa to win is a fantastic bet at +130 odds, as they were 4-1-1 against the bottom-three last year.

Tottenham vs. Manchester City

Manchester City to win -165

Manchester City are coming off an amazing season where they ran away with the EPL title by 19 points and finished with a 27-5-6 record and a +51 goal difference. City were extremely dominant last year, and they went out and added the aforementioned Grealish, making them the clear favorites to repeat as champions. The odds reflect that, pricing City at -155 to win the league.

Tottenham are +6000 to win the EPL, tying them for the sixth-best odds. Last season Spurs finished seventh with a +5.0 expected goal difference, compared to a +42.0 expected goal difference from Manchester City, so there is a clear gap in quality between the two sides.

Manchester City should expect to win this match, and quite frankly, they should expect to win just about every fixture they play this season. Whenever City are anywhere close to even odds to win, they are worth betting on.

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