4 Best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
The Super Bowl is a gambler's paradise, especially when it comes to prop bets. Most books display hundreds of them, down to the specific player, and it's no different at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes is arguably Super Bowl 54's best and most exciting player. And with his big-play ability, paired with the biggest stage in the game, we could be in for an exciting performance from the Chief's third-year signal caller.
With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the best prop bets to consider for Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV when he faces off against the San Francisco 49ers.
1. Result of Patrick Mahomes' First Pass: Complete (-200)
While the price isn't the best here, you still have to like these odds. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid usually like to get things going with some more simple passing plays at first, not going for the jugular right out of the gate. In both of the Chiefs' playoff games this season, Mahomes has completed a pass on his first attempt. That streak even extends back into the regular season, where he completed his first pass against the Chargers in Week 17.
2. Yards of 1st TD Pass: Over 14.5 (-115)
Patrick Mahomes' "wow" factor is no secret, and that especially goes for his crazy touchdown passes, much of which are huge plays out of nowhere. In fact, of Mahomes' 26 touchdown passes in 2019, 17 of them were over 14 yards, with two others being exactly 14 yards. So just based on his numbers from this season alone, history says there is a roughly a 66 percent chance any touchdown he throws hits the over on this total.
3. Patrick Mahomes to Throw a 1st Quarter Touchdown: Yes (+110)
Of all four quarters, Mahomes has thrown the second most touchdown passes of his career in the first quarter. The 20 out of his 76 career regular season TDs coming in the first trail only the second quarter's 24. In 2019, eight of his 26 touchdowns have come in the first quarter. So while this San Francisco 49er's defense is one of the league's best, Mahomes has proven he can perform against even the NFL's top competition.
4. Quarterback to Throw a Touchdown Pass First: Patrick Mahomes (-140)
This one is just as much about Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers as it is about Patrick Mahomes. The Niners have instilled a run-heavy approach throughout both the playoffs and the regular season. It was on full display in the NFC Championship game last week, which saw Garoppolo have a mere eight pass attempts. In 2019, Mahomes averaged 34.5 passing attempts per game, while Garoppolo averaged 29.7. In Garoppolo's first playoff game, he threw 19 times and had one touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings, then he had no touchdowns on those eight attempts against the Packers in the NFC Championship. The Niners have the second-best rushing attack in the NFL this year, while the Chiefs' rush defense ranks No. 25. The Chief's passing defense ranks No. 14, so look for the Niners to attack one of the Chiefs' weaknesses with one of their strengths. All of this should equal less opportunity for Jimmy G to throw touchdown passes.
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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.