Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Could Offer Super Bowl 54 Betting Value

Jason Schandl
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes scrambles against the Titans.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes scrambles against the Titans. / David Eulitt/Getty Images

No stranger to racking up huge numbers all over the stat sheet, Patrick Mahomes has been especially dangerous with his feet in the postseason, amassing 106 rushing yards across two playoff games.

FanDuel Sportsbook doesn't like his chances of hitting the 50-yard mark on the ground again in Super Bowl 54 against the San Francisco 49ers, though, and the prop bet for his rushing yard total has an over/under set at 30.5, with the over favored at -134, compared to +104 on the under.

Breaking down the potential value side of this bet obviously isn't as simple as looking at his 53 yards in both the Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game and assuming we'll get more of the same — but that's a good place to start.

It's not just that his rushing output has been high, but Mahomes' volume on the ground has picked up recently. His three highest carry totals of the season have come in his last three games, with seven, seven and eight attempts in those contests. Averaging 5.1 yards per attempt on the year, seven carries at average efficiency would put him over 30.5 yards.

The 49ers' defense is not an average unit, though, having checked in as the NFL's second-best overall force in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric.

That doesn't mean they excelled everywhere, though. San Francisco actually allowed the league's third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. That average is skewed some from playing in the same division as mobile-threat QBs like Kyler Murray and Russel Wilson, but it's not like Mahomes isn't a mobile threat himself.

In the five games the Niners played against top rushing QBs (Murray, Wilson and Lamar Jackson), they gave up at least 34 yards on four of those occasions and still surrendered 29 yards in the fifth. The median QB rushing output in those games was 53 yards — exactly what Mahomes has hit in each of the last two games.

Things can always change drastically with teams getting two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, but the data from earlier this season points to Mahomes having the potential to clear the 30.5-yard mark with relative ease.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.