Two playoff hopefuls meet in prime-time for tonight's matchup. This Sunday, the rugged Indianapolis Colts head to the well-rested San Francisco 49ers in a game both need to win badly. In this prediction, let's dive into a Colts spread vs. 49ers pick and determine the best bet for this Sunday Night Football prediction.
Indianapolis is coming off a dominant win against the Houston Texans and is looking for their third win this season. San Francisco is coming off of their bye week and is looking to get back to .500 to keep up in their division.
The Colts are looking to secure back-to-back wins for the first time this season. After losing a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis came out and throttled the Texans. They have covered the spread in four of six games, even with their 2-4 overall record.
Running back Jonathan Taylor has been the focal point of this Colts offense, and for good reason. He has 100 scrimmage yards and at least one touchdown in each of the last three games. However, they are balanced on offense and sit in the middle of the league in overall offensive DVOA.
Defensively, Indianapolis is the best run-stopping team in the league with a -38.3% rush defense DVOA. When it comes to their secondary, the Colts are the complete opposite. They rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, so they will need to limit the San Francisco aerial attack in this game.
Dusty Bay Area
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers love to run the ball. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they have not been able to run with the same power they have been used to over the past couple of years. They rank in the middle of the league in offensive rush DVOA and do better this season when passing the ball.
On defense, the 49ers have also taken a step back compared to previous years as well. They are in the middle of the pack, with their secondary performing slightly better than their front seven. They will have their work cut out for them as a tough-running Colts team will continue to pound the ball from start to finish.
Colts vs 49ers prediction and pick
In a game that I expect to be tight with either team winning by a field goal, I'll gladly take the points with the road team that should play a tough defensive battle and focus on running the ball consistently. Give me the Colts +4.5 as the official play tonight.