Hurricanes vs. Lightning NHL Game 5 Info
NHL Playoffs Game 5 (TBL leads series 3-1)
Carolina Hurricanes (36-12-8) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3)
Date: Tuesday, June 8
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: PNC Arena
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Moneyline, Total and Odds
All Hurricanes vs Lightning odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Hurricanes +106 | Lightning -124
Spread: Hurricanes +1.5 (-275) | Lightning -1.5 (+220)
Total: 5.5 Over +110 | Under -134
Odds to win Stanley Cup: Hurricanes +3700 | Lightning +230
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Predictions and Picks
- Hurricanes +102
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning News, Analysis, and Picks
The Carolina Hurricanes' best chance of getting back in their second-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning comes on home ice in Game 5. The Canes have dropped three of the first four games, but their metrics support this series has been closer than it appears. The home team has outpaced the visitor in expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five in all four games. Outplaying opponents at home has been common practice for the Hurricanes this season, as they have the fifth-rated expected goals-for percentage at home this postseason.
The key to getting past the Lightning in Game 5 will be limiting the damage from their powerplay. Six of the Lightning's 12 goals this round have come with the man advantage. Their metrics are being elevated as a result of special teams' production. Tampa has been limited to eight or fewer high-danger chances and 21 or fewer scoring chances at five-on-five in three of their four games against the Canes, averaging 9.5 high-danger opportunities and 23.3 scoring chances. Those averages jump to 12.0 and 29.8, respectively, across all strengths.
The key to limiting the Bolts is not giving their powerplay room to operate. Tampa also has some poor metrics for a team that is 4-1 on the road this postseason. The Lightning have an expected goals-for percentage of 46.5% at five-on-five, which drops to 42% across all strengths in five road games. Andrei Vasilevkiy and his 94.4% save percentage are almost single-handedly keeping the Bolts competitive. That save percentage has elevated the Lightning's PDO beyond sustainable levels, indicating that Tampa is due for a correction, which should result in a few more losses.
Carolina has outplayed their opponents at five-on-five and across all strengths so far this postseason. Vasilevksiy stymied them in Games 1 and 2, but Vasilevskiy can't continue to increase his save percentage game after game on the road.
The metrics don't support that the Canes should be underdogs in this spot. We're taking a calculated risk on the Hurricanes in Game 5.
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