Kyler Murray is Being Over Drafted in Fantasy Football Mock Drafts

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Every season, there seems to be a few players that fantasy football owners value higher than the experts. This year, one such instance can be seen in the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, Kyler Murray.

Pretty much everyone I've seen has Kyler Murray as their QB12-QB15 in their ranks but he's consistently going from QB6-QB8 in all the drafts I've done. Is he being overdrafted or is the industry too low/slow to react/unwilling to commit to the market price?
— Al Smizzle (@AlZeidenfeld) June 3, 2019

On some sites, such as Fantrax, Murray has an average draft position (ADP) of QB6, meaning he is being drafted as a starter in a standard league. That's quite high, considering Murray did not make the Top 10 in our 2019 QB rankings.

However, Murray will get the chance to start immediately, which could help boost his value a bit. Additionally, rookie quarterbacks generally fared quite well last season, so some owners might be experiencing a bit of recency bias when it comes to Murray.

Both Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson were legitimate fantasy options once they got the starting job last season, and Murray has the raw ability to have a similarly productive rookie year.

Game 11 - Kyler Murray accounts for five TDs in the game (three rushing, two passing). It was his third game this season in which he accounted
for five or more total. #Sooners beat Kansas 55-40. pic.twitter.com/OEbO710ouo
— SoonerScoop.com (@SoonerScoop) December 9, 2018

Another reason Murray is being drafted so high is his ability to score fantasy points with his legs. As a rookie, he may give up on his passing progression early to scramble out of the pocket, much like was saw with Jackson last season. Mobile quarterbacks generally have a statistical floor that pocket passers don't possess, so a quarterback with running ability is usually great for fantasy.

Even so, drafting Murray over proven quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Cam Newton is certainly a gamble.

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