Justin Herbert Fantasy Football Outlook Offers Top-5 Potential in 2021

Adam Taylor McKillop
Justin Herbert's fantasy football value offers top-5 potential heading into the 2021 season.
Justin Herbert's fantasy football value offers top-5 potential heading into the 2021 season. / Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
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When looking at Justin Herbert's rookie campaign, it's quite clear why he won the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The former Oregon Duck lived up to all of the draft hype (No. 6 overall), after scorching opposing defenses for 4,336 passing yards and 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.

The Los Angeles Chargers QB checks in with an average draft position (ADP) of QB6 per FantasyPros, making him one of the most desirable QB targets for fantasy owners ahead of the 2021 season. After all, he makes insane throws like the one below, and there's nothing not to like about that.

Justin Herbert Fantasy 2021

It's pretty remarkable the stat line that Herbert put up, considering he didn't see action in Week 1. Still, the young gunslinger ended just 38 yards shy of breaking rookie record held by Andrew Luck (4,374 yards). His overall fantasy numbers positioned him as QB9 following the end of the 2020 season.

It takes a deep dive into Herbert's advanced stats to find any sort of apparent flaws in his game. Of course, the one knock comes from the accuracy, which isn't surprising for a QB in his rookie season. Herbert did rank second amongst active QBs with 105 bad throws and an 18% bad throw percentage.

However, for those looking to validate these numbers, the highest amount of bad throws in 2020 belonged to the legendary Tom Brady (122). We all know how that story ended.

Some other concerns remain for Herbert in the Chargers' passing threats and offensive line. ProFootballFocus ranked Los Angeles' entire O-Line unit as the NFL's worst in 2020. Los Angeles did address the offensive line in both the draft and free agency, adding three potential free-agent starters and stud Northwestern left tackle Rashawn Slater.

Los Angeles also lost tight end Hunter Henry in free agency, and he finished second on the team with 93 targets last year. These may be the only two areas for fantasy owners to be concerned about heading into 2021.

Justin Herbert ADP

It took some deep dives to find holes in Herbert's game. The second-year QB heads into the season with one of the best fantasy outlooks amongst quarterbacks across the league.

He's easily viewed as a high-end QB1, it's just a matter of where he'll be taken in the draft. Based on the numbers last year and a natural progression taken by most QBs heading into year two, Herbert flashes top-5 QB potential this year. That puts him in the company of names like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and the other NFL superstars.

Herbert checks in at QB7 in our 2021 fantasy football rankings.


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Adam Taylor McKillop is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Taylor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username atmckillop. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

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