The Duel

Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook Makes Him Boom-or-Bust QB Option in 2020 Drafts

Larry Rupp
Josh Allen's fantasy football outlook makes him a boom-or-bust option in 2020 drafts.
Josh Allen's fantasy football outlook makes him a boom-or-bust option in 2020 drafts. / Tim Warner/Getty Images

Before he was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in 2018, Josh Allen was a polarizing prospect. Through two NFL seasons, he also receives polarizing reviews as a franchise QB. And of course, that polarizing outlook carries over in fantasy football.

Allen threw for 3,089 yards while adding 520 yards on the ground and scoring 29 touchdowns in 2019. The added rushing abilities helped Allen finish within the top 12 fantasy QBs last year, but that aspect of his game might be changing a bit heading into the 2020 season.

Allen wants to spread the ball out more and get it into the hands of the playmakers on his offense, saying "they're a lot quicker and shiftier" than he is. Allen has led the league in quarterback rushing since entering the league, but it sounds like he may be focusing more on developing as a passer.

The former Wyoming quarterback averaged 18 fantasy points per game last year and was able to pass or rush for at least one touchdown in each one. However, he didn't improve much from the numbers he posted during his rookie season, when he averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game.

Heading into this season, Allen could be in for a decline in his rushing touchdowns. It is hard for quarterbacks to consistently find the end zone on the ground, and a third straight season with 8-plus rushing touchdowns would be unprecedented. Since 2000, there are only a combined eight instances (including Allen's two) of a QB scoring at least 8 rushing TDs in a single season.

The Bills did make a splash this past offseason when they gave up a 1st-round pick to acquire wide receiver Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings. The Bills' offense hasn't had a consistent WR1 in quite some time, so this addition could really change the dynamic in Buffalo. It also looks as the two have already set up a good connection throughout training camp.

Projections across the league vary, as some see Allen as the top breakout quarterback this season, while others see him as a complete bust. FanDuel Sportsbook sets his passing projections to be right around what they were last year even though he has another year under his belt and an improved set of offensive weapons at his disposal.

Ranked as the No. 7 quarterback in our 2020 fantasy football rankings, there is a lot to like about the upside Josh Allen has this upcoming season, though his range of outcomes also includes the potential to disappoint fantasy owners if his rushing production falls off.

As a boom-or-bust player, Allen is especially well suited to being taken as a quarterback in best ball drafts, where you can capture his weekly upside without worrying as much about any down weeks he may have.

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.