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The Duel

Falcons Super Bowl Odds Drop Further After NFL Free Agency

By michael obermuller

Matt Ryan is sacked in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Matt Ryan is sacked in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. / Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
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The Atlanta Falcons had a strange 2019 season. Beginning the year as a team with playoff aspirations, they started 1-7 and decided not to fire head coach Dan Quinn. They then went 6-2 to finish the Jekyll and Hyde campaign, defeating challenging opponents like the New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They also beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.

Falcons Odds to Win Super Bowl 2020

The hot finish had the Falcons 2020-21 Super Bowl odds at +4000, but after a bleak free agency period for the franchise, those odds have since dropped to +4400 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That is currently 21st ranked in the NFL.

There are two contributing factors as to why this has been a tough offseason for the Falcons. The first is the obvious reason, their moves have been uninspiring. On the offensive side, they cut Devonta Freeman and lost out on Austin Hooper to the Cleveland Browns. They traded for Hayden Hurst to replace Hooper, but the big acquisition was Todd Gurley, an injury-prone running back that Atlanta will bet on.

The defensive side went much worse. The Falcons, who desperately need to rebuild their defense in general, have been getting skinned in free agency. Desmond Trufant, Vic Beasley, Adrian Clayborn, De'Vondre Campbell and Jack Crawford have all gone elsewhere with more depth from last season still unsigned. These players aren't necessarily crucial losses if adequately replaced, but the only major signing so far has been edge rusher Dante Fowler. Atlanta has to start plugging all these holes.

Part two of the lowered Super Bowl odds is likely due to their division. The NFC South may have just become the top division in the NFL overnight, or at least one of them. Not only did Drew Brees return to the New Orleans Saints for two more seasons (plus the team around him got better in free agency), Tom Brady chose the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the next step in his career.

Brady signed for two years as well, so the Falcons should be looking future, not present. The Carolina Panthers are doing just that, rebuilding for the days after Brees and Brady, when the division may be wide open. The Falcons on the other hand seem to be in the middle, with aged superstars that are not quite as good as their competition.

There are still some moves to be made, plus the NFL Draft. The Falcons still have a ton of work to do if they want any shot at a championship next season.

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Michael Obermuller is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Michael also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username king_mizzard. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.