Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Game 2 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Celtics vs Heat Game 1 Info

2021-22 NBA Playoffs — Eastern Conference Finals Game 2 (Heat Lead 1-0)
Boston Celtics (51-31, 23-18 Away) vs. Miami Heat (53-29, 29-12 Home)
Date: Thursday, May 19, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: FTX Arena — Miami, FL
Coverage: ESPN

Anyone who was concerned that a series between two teams with top-five defenses that play with bottom-10 pace was going to be boring got a wake-up call on Tuesday. Game 1 wasn't short on drama, with the Celtics looking like they might be coasting to an easy win in the first half before completely falling apart in the third quarter. They kept it interesting until late in the game though, cutting the lead down to 9 points with plenty of time left in the fourth before things ultimately slipped away.

Game 2 promises to be no less interesting, especially if Marcus Smart (foot) can make it back into the lineup. Al Horford (COVID protocol) is expected to sit again, however, and the Heat may be countering Smart with the return of Kyle Lowry (hamstring).

Celtics vs Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: BOS: (+136) | MIA: (-162)
Spread: BOS: +3.5 (-110) | MIA: -3.5 (-110)
Total: 206.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Odds to Win NBA Finals: BOS: (+340) | MIA: (+280)

These odds represent a pretty sizable shift from what we saw in Game 1. Miami was just a 1.5-point home favorite in that one, and the over/under was down at 204.5 points. The biggest change, however, is in those NBA Championship odds. Boston ranked second to the Golden State Warriors at +210 prior to Game 1, while Miami was way back at +420. A 1-0 series lead has Miami jumping Boston for that No. 2 spot.

Celtics vs Heat Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Miami Heat win (56.5%)

numberFire's projection models like the Heat, and I'm inclined to agree. The Heat were favorites at home in Game 1 and took care of business. Even if injury news breaks in the Celtics' favor with Smart returning and Lowry out, I don't see Smart being worth enough points to close the gap. Don't expect this one to be nearly as high-scoring as Game 1 (more on that below), but do expect the winner to be the same.

Final score prediction: Heat 103- Celtics 99

Celtics vs Heat Betting Trends

- Boston is 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 road games.
- Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
- The total has hit the over in four of Boston's last six road games in Miami.
- The total has hit the over in eight of Miami's last 11 games against Boston.

These recent betting trends match a lot of what we've seen all season. The Heat have been great against the spread at home (27-21), while the Celtics have been lights out ATS on the road (30-17). It's also noteworthy that while the C's have been pretty neutral on over/under bets (46-47-1), the over has gone 51-42-1 for Miami on the year.

Celtics vs Heat Best Bet

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Game 1 was a barnburner, with 225 total points scored. The Heat were coming off five days of rest, however, and there were some high-paced stretches of Game 1 that weren't exactly characteristic of the way these teams usually play. As mentioned in the intro, these were both bottom-10 teams in terms of pace in the regular season (28th for Miami, 24th for Boston) while also both ranking top-five in defensive rating (4th for Miami, 1st for Boston).

Both teams have also seen their pace fall in the postseason (Miami from 96.5 to 93.8 and Boston from 97.3 to 96.7). Now they head into Game 2 with increased familiarity for the opposing offense, and we potentially have two strong defensive guards returning to action in Smart and Lowry.

Don't get fooled by the Game 1 shootout — Game 2 could be a grind.

Bet Under 206 points (-110)

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.