The Boston Red Sox are being severely underrated by their win total expectation for 2020.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Red Sox have a win total over/under at just 30.5 at -126 odds. That means the oddsmakers don’t expect the Red Sox to go any better than .500 for the season.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Red Sox were given an over/under number of 89.5 wins. That mark is a significantly better record than the 30-30 record the current odds suggest. While societal circumstances have completely changed since that number went out, the Red Sox roster is virtually the same.
The reason for the drop in odds likely comes down to the schedule, as the Red Sox will now be forced to play more games against two tough divisions in the AL East and NL East.
However, the shorter season, assuming it's completed in full, should allow the Red Sox to cover for their roster's weaknesses. The team's lack of starting pitching shouldn't be as much of a factor as it would be over 162 games. Meanwhile, while Mookie Betts is gone, the offense still features J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. Also, the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins are still on the schedule, so that should give the Red Sox some easy wins.
Boston shouldn't be favored to win the division or even to make the playoffs, but it still has a good chance to go better than .500. The team's ineffective title defense in 2019 still got them to 84-78, and they could pull off a similar feat in 2020.
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Tristan Jung is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Tristan Jung also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username tristan1117. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.