The AFC Championship is set, and thanks to a huge upset from the Tennessee Titans last week, it does not include the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens.
If you're looking to place a wager on this one outside of the normal spread or total, here are four of the best prop bets to consider ahead of the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 19.
1. First Touchdown Scorer - Derrick Henry (+550)
There's been no questioning Derrick Henry's absolute dominance recently, and since Week 10 he has racked up four of the six highest single-game rushing yardage totals for any player on the season. That includes each of his last three games. The Chiefs defense checks in at sixth against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, but they rank only 29th against the run, so Henry should have no issue producing here. As significant underdogs, though, the Titans may be forced to move away from the run if they're playing from behind late in the game. That shouldn't be an issue in a zero-zero game however, suggesting that Henry's best opportunity to find the end zone could come early in the game.
2. Both Teams to Score 20 Points - No (-106)
The Titans' run-heavy approach tends to keep games relatively low-scoring, win or lose. Tennessee and its opponent have not both reached 20 points in any of the Titans' last three games, and it's happened just twice in their last six. The "No" side of this prop has also hit in four of KC's last six. Being favored by over a touchdown, the possibility that the Chiefs take an early lead and force the Titans to lean more on the pass (pitting the weaker part of their offense against the Chiefs' defensive strength) means that this prop could be more likely to hit in a KC victory.
3. Any Time Touchdown Scorer - Damien Williams (-160)
Some of the same factors that make Henry more appealing as the first TD scorer suggest that Damien Williams' value is more interesting as an any time scorer. Playing with a lead could push the Chiefs into a more run-heavy game flow in the second half, giving Williams the opportunity for increased volume. He's found the end zone in five of his last six healthy games (excluding Week 11, when he made an early exit with an injury), and that includes finding the end zone in three straight games since returning in Week 16, racking up six TDs in that stretch.
4. To Score Every Quarter: Kansas City Chiefs - No (-130)
The Chiefs have scored in all four quarters six times in 17 games this season, so right off the bat it's interesting that the "Yes" and "No" odds are so close on this one. Their implied total from the betting lines this week (30.0 points) is right in line with their average through those 17 games (29.5). They also averaged 33.2 points per game in those contests in which the "Yes" hit. If we take this week's spread and total at face value, this prop presents some interesting value. If you're leaning towards the Titans or the under, then this line becomes particularly enticing.
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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.