Aaron Jones Fantasy Outlook Could Make Him a Bust in 2020

Jason Schandl
Aaron Jones' fantasy outlook makes the Green Bay Packers RB a player to avoid in 2020 drafts.
Aaron Jones' fantasy outlook makes the Green Bay Packers RB a player to avoid in 2020 drafts. / Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Aaron Jones is coming off a huge fantasy football season in 2019. He finished second among all running backs in PPR fantasy points per game, leading the NFL with 19 touchdowns (16 rushing and 3 receiving).

Don't let those touchdowns get you too excited though. With concerns around his workload, Jones could be shaping up to be a fantasy football bust in 2020.

To start with, rushing touchdowns are just not a consistent, reliable stat. Jones is one of seven running backs to run for 16 TDs in a season since 2010, and every other back in that group saw their TD total fall the following season. None of the five other backs in the sample (excluding Derrick Henry, who just had 16 in 2019) had more than 12 rushing touchdowns the following year, while three of the five finished with fewer than 5.

You just can't bank on another super-high TD total to carry Jones' value.

That makes his volume concerns even more worrying. In games that fellow Packers RB Jamaal Williams played, Jones averaged just 13.7 carries and 3.9 targets per game. That translates to a 16-game pace of 219 carries (would have ranked No. 17 at the position in 2019) and 62 targets (No. 15 at the position). And now the Pack have added another talented young back in second-round pick AJ Dillon.

Being drafted as the 13th running back off the board, according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, you really need Jones for another monster TD number to have a chance at returning any kind of value. That's just not enough to make him worth picking so high.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.