Cover Photo: Getty Images

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has put together the best season from a first-year starting quarterback in the history of the NFL, and the ​best fantasy season from any quarterback in NFL history, for that matter. 

The playoffs can be a whole different story, though, specifically because Mahomes is making his first start in the postseason. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start have done quite poorly both straight up and against the spread. 

The Chiefs are ​5-point favorites at home against a scalding-hot Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, but a trend like this is hard to ignore. Although this stat does directly conflict with one about dome teams playing outdoors on the road in the playoffs and another ​pointing to how well Mahomes plays against defenses like the Colts.

Only time will tell which one of these trends wins out, and there's plenty of sample size to support both, but despite Mahomes' incredible season, this trend and how hot the Colts are should make bettors at least worry a little bit before laying your money down on the Chiefs.

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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.