T.Y. Hilton Injury Update Solidifies Week 12 Fantasy Outlook as Starter vs Texans on Thursday

Atlanta Falcons v Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons v Indianapolis Colts / Justin Casterline/Getty Images

A calf injury has sidelined T.Y. Hilton since Week 8, but he's been trending in the right direction to suit up for tonight's "Thursday Night Football" matchup all week.

He hasn't practiced, but the team won't let that be the deciding factor in his availability, and he expects to play against the Houston Texans.

Hilton has led the Colts in his market share of both targets (25 percent) and air yards (36 percent) when active this year, and in his six healthy games he's averaged 5.3 receptions, 60.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 7.7 targets per game. That's good for an average of 16.1 PPR fantasy points per game, which checks in at WR13 for the year.

His matchup tonight is also a favorable one. He's averaged over 100 yards per game in 15 contests against the Texans, and while most of those were too long ago to have a real impact on tonight's outlook, the 2019 edition of the Houston defense has allowed the NFL's seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing wideouts while coming in at 25th against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings.

Hilton's return will also downgrade the fantasy outlook for both Zach Pascal and Eric Ebron, thanks to the huge share of the available receiving volume that Hilton stands to re-claim.

There is some room for concern that Hilton aggravates his injury or isn't as effective as usual while playing hurt, but his upside in this matchup is just too high to keep him on your bench unless you've got an embarrassment of riches at the position.

Even with the risk, he sits at WR16 in our Week 12 PPR fantasy football rankings.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.