3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 7/1/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+310)

I'm an optimist, living in a world where Kevin Roth's updated weather forecast clears concerns about this game's ugly outlook later today.

It's kind of a tough day for weather everywhere, so I don't mind if I have to take a void backing Riley Greene in a phenomenal matchup against right-hander Trevor Williams of the Washington Nationals.

Greene has smashed righties in the past 30 days, accumulating a 1.121 OPS, .348 ISO, 51.2% flyball rate (!), and 34.3% hard-hit rate over his last 71 plate appearances (PAs). He went deep on primetime for his team-leading sixth bomb in this stretch.

Meanwhile, Williams' struggles play right into his hands. The veteran's flyball (41.1%) and hard-hit (41.0%) rates allowed are elevated; he's just been fortunate to escape "only" allowing 1.02 HR/9 on the basis of a homer-to-flyball ratio (8.5%) well below the league average (11.7%).

FanDuel Research's MLB home run projections expect 0.29 median bombs from the Detroit Tigers outfielder. That implies closer to +297 odds for one if correct.

Sean Murphy to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Part of the Atlanta Braves' inconsistency at the plate might be due to how few southpaws they've faced.

Sean Murphy has just 61 PAs against lefties this season. It's July. They've been special, though, if leading the team in homers (5) versus left-handed pitching is any indication. That's come with an .857 OPS, .333 ISO, 51.6% flyball rate, and 41.9% hard-hit rate. Whew.

Atlanta draws a lefty -- at last -- today in the form of Tyler Anderson. Anderson has had an usually poor season keeping the ball in the yard (1.58 HR/9) despite always flirting with disaster. He's on pace for a sixth straight campaign with a flyball rate north of 40.0%, and they're now exiting the park.

We've got Murphy projected for 0.36 homers on Tuesday. This forecast a little better than D.C.'s, but I can't pass up on the catcher's odds to round the bases when they should be closer to +231.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Just this season, the Seattle Mariners' home ballpark is ninth in home runs ceded to left-handed bats. Cal Raleigh might have something to do with that, but it's enough optimism to deploy Vinnie Pasquantino in a great spot.

"Pasquatch" has shrugged off an early-season slump to post 4 homers, an .821 OPS, and a .173 ISO against righties in the past month (75 PAs). A look at his flyball (44.1%) and hard-hit (31.7%) rates in this time also make the grade when we'll want a lefty against Emerson Hancock.

Hancock has allowed 2.70 HR/9 to lefties compared to just 0.86 HR/9 against same-handed batters. His flyball and hard-hit rates allowed to left-handed sticks are also at least 10.5 percentage points higher. The Kansas City Royals have a ton of righties, but Pasquantino bucks the trend -- and does so with power.

FDR projects the first baseman for 0.23 home runs tonight, so we'd set this line closer to +387. I'm surprised he's not the shortest bat on the team.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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