Joe Burrow Odds to Win NFL MVP Have Potential First Overall Pick as Huge Long Shot

Jason Schandl
Joe Burrow's odds to win NFL MVP as a rookie have him as a massive long shot.
Joe Burrow's odds to win NFL MVP as a rookie have him as a massive long shot. / Alika Jenner/Getty Images

Joe Burrow is coming off an incredible Heisman Trophy-winning 2019 season, shattering records as he led the LSU Tigers to a 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship win.

Burrow is widely considered as a heavy favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, which would have him landing with the Cincinnati Bengals. He would be a huge favorite to replace Andy Dalton as the Bengals' starting QB.

Joe Burrow NFL MVP Odds

Despite all of the hype surrounding the incoming rookie, though, he's not getting much respect in the odds to win the NFL MVP award for next season. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Burrow is available at +20000 odds — a 200-to-1 payout.

Those odds have him tied for 56th among all players, putting him tied with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nick Foles, who may not even be starting QBs next season.

Rookies to Win NFL MVP

It's understandable that he's not getting great odds — a rookie has not won the Associated Press NFL MVP award since 1957, when Jim Brown won it. Earl Campbell did take home an NFL MVP award in his 1978 rookie season, but that was from the Pro Football Writers Association — he wasn't the AP's MVP until 1979.

Recent trends are encouraging for Burrow, though. Neither of the last two winners (Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019) were rookies, but each player was in his first season as a full-time starter.

At 200-to-1 odds, you don't need to think Burrow is any sort of a lock for the bet to be an interesting one, either. Those odds imply just a 0.5 percent chance of Burrow taking him the award. However, Burrow did also open with +6500 odds (65-to-1) to win the 2019 Heisman, so he's no stranger to being a long shot.

Considering the NFL MVP award has become almost entirely an award for QBs (12 of the last 13 have gone to the position), and that young QBs are starting to make a real push, Burrow could offer some interesting value.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.