Islanders vs. Lightning Prediction, Odds, Betting Lines & Picks for NHL Playoffs Game 3 on FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning - Game Two
New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning - Game Two / Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Islanders vs Lightning NHL Game 3 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)
New York Islanders (32-17-7) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3)
Date: Thursday, June 17
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Islanders vs Lightning Moneyline, Total and Odds

All Islanders-Lightning betting odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Islanders +118 | Lightning -138
Islanders +1.5 (-250) | Lightning +1.5 (+202)
5.5 — Over +122| Under -150
Odds to win the Stanley Cup:
Islanders +500 | Lightning +175

Islanders vs Lightning Predictions and Picks

  • Islanders +118

New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning News, Analysis, and Picks

Game 3 of the semifinal matchup between the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning goes down on Thursday night on Long Island. The Lightning clawed their way back into the series with a Game 2 win, but the Isles hold a distinct advanced metrics advantage that should be amplified with home-ice advantage.

The Islanders were able to limit the Lightning to a combined 15 high-danger chances at five-on-five through the first two games of the series. Which, of course, was without the benefit of last change. Now the Islanders return home, where they have limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in four of six games this postseason, with an average of 9.0 high-danger chances per game. Those staunch defensive efforts helped the Islanders post a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 54.4% at five-on-five, outplaying the Bolts in both games.

New York held the Lightning to two powerplay goals in Games 1 and 3, despite playing over 12 minutes on the penalty kill in both games. It's also worth noting that the powerplay tally in Game 1 came with less than a minute left while the Lightning had a 6-on-4 attack. Altogether, some impressive efforts from the Islanders came on the road.

Regardless of the venue, Tampa continues to put forward lackluster efforts this postseason. Game 2 was the eighth time these playoffs that they were outplayed at five-on-five and the ninth time across all strengths. In total, they've posted an expected goals-for percentage of 48.3% at five-on-five and 46.6% across all strengths.

The Lightning continue to win games despite the metrics working against them, winning nine of 13 playoff games. As expected, this has resulted in an inflated PDO that will inevitably work its' way back down towards the hypothetical average of 1.000.

The last metric worth considering is that the Lightning have been outplayed across all strengths in all six road games this postseason. Tampa's expected goals-for percentage drops to 43.5% as the visitors and their PDO remains the second-highest among all 16 playoff teams, at 1.033. Tampa's 5-1 record is incompatible with the efforts that they are putting forward.

In reviewing the metrics, taking the Islanders on the moneyline is a no-brainer. Not only have they been the better team, but the series now shifts back to New York, where the Islanders can rely on last change to get ideal matchups and limit the Lightning further. We're taking a stance with the Islanders.

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