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This season home underdogs have not only been covering the spread, but have been winning games outright. With 19 home dogs so far this season, they're 11-7 against the spread (ATS) and are 7-9-2 straight up, with the Packers and Browns picking up ties as underdogs at home.
This only continues the trend that home underdogs cover the spread more often than not, and that home-field advantage is an underrated aspect when betting on NFL games. There are four home underdogs this week -- the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks -- so let's break down who has the best chance to win.
4. Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (+5.5), Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST
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The Bills went back to being the Bills in a 22-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. Facing an under-rated Titans team that is quietly tied for the AFC South lead, another loss looks likely for Buffalo. They're already 0-1 as a home underdog straight up and against the spread, losing to the Chargers, 31-20, in Week 2. This one looks like it will have a similar outcome, but simply with less scoring this Sunday.
3. Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+7.5), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
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The Seahawks have the honor of taking on arguably the best team in football right now in the Los Angeles Rams. Coming off consecutive wins, one at home and last week on the road, the Seahawks should keep this game close with the help of the 12th man. Seattle always plays the Rams tough, especially at home, meaning this game will be a lot closer than it looks on paper.
2. Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+3), Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST
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The Browns are coming off a wild 45-42 overtime loss in Week 4 at Oakland, after scoring exactly 21 points in weeks 1-3. Baker Mayfield's first-career start paid dividends for the team's offense, racking up 295 yards and two touchdowns through the air. As a home dog in Week 1 against the Steelers, the Browns came out with a tie, meaning they covered. Look for a similar outcome here and possibly Mayfield's first win as a starter.
1. Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+1), Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST
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The Lions are 1-3 on the season, picking up their only win as a home underdog against the New England Patriots in Week 3. Matthew Stafford looked good again last week in a tough loss to the Cowboys, throwing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns. Having swept the season series with the Packers last season, a win at Ford Field wouldn't be out of the question.
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