The Duel

Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo Touchdown Totals for Super Bowl 54 Show Clear Edge to Chiefs' Quarterback

David Kaestle
Patrick Mahomes during a game against the New England Patriots.
Patrick Mahomes during a game against the New England Patriots. / Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
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Super Bowl LIV is projected to be a tight one, at least according to the odds, as FanDuel Sportsbook has the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers.

However, when it comes to prop bets, there's quite a bit more variability, especially when it comes to the two quarterbacks.

There is a prop bet for each quarterback to throw over or under 1.5 touchdowns in the big game, but just because the total is the same, it doesn't mean the odds are and it's clear Mahomes has the edge here.

Mahomes sits at -260 to hit the over, while Garoppolo is only at -112.

While Garoppolo had 27 touchdowns in the regular season, to Mahomes' 26 (albeit in two fewer games), the Chiefs' QB has been far more productive lately. Garoppolo has only thrown one TD through two playoff games, while Mahomes has tossed eight touchdowns during that same span.

The 49ers' run-heavy approach could also be a major factor here. The 49ers have 89 carries to just 27 pass attempts in the playoffs thus far, while Mahomes attempts 35 passes in both postseason games.


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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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