Matt Breida Fantasy Outlook Includes Boom-or-Bust Sleeper Upside in 2020

Jason Schandl
Matt Breida's fantasy outlook includes big upside as a boom-or-bust sleeper in 2020 drafts.
Matt Breida's fantasy outlook includes big upside as a boom-or-bust sleeper in 2020 drafts. / Mark Brown/Getty Images

Matt Breida has impressed just about every time he's had the opportunity in the NFL, but the San Francisco 49ers never really gave him a chance to work as their lead back — always going with a committee approach.

He's not likely to be the starter to open his first season with the Miami Dolphins, either, but that doesn't mean Breida's fantasy football outlook doesn't include big upside in 2020.

Breida is expected to start the season as the Dolphins' RB2, behind Jordan Howard. Howard's a guy who has shown himself capable of handling big volume, tallying at least 250 carries in three of his four NFL seasons, but he has struggled with efficiency and versatility in recent years.

After impressing by averaging 5.2 yards per carry as a rookie in 2016, Howard has averaged just 4.0 yards per carry combined in three seasons since then. That stat isn't a pure reflection of an RB's talent, but last year he averaged fewer yards per carry than teammate Miles Sanders, while he averaged fewer than Tarik Cohen in both 2017 and 2018.

Breida, on the other hand, has averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career, having led the 49ers' backfield (among backs with 50-plus carries) in two of his three seasons.

Pro Football Focus also gave Breida a better receiving grade than Howard in each of the last three seasons, suggesting he's a far more capable receiver.

The risk in drafting Breida is fairly straightforward: he's the RB2 in a fairly weak offense. That means there's a real chance that he never cracks your starting lineup this season. He's going off the board as the RB35 (a ninth-round pick) according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, however, so much of that risk is factored into his price.

His potential upside is more than worth a gamble at that price. Miami will likely be trailing a lot, so even if Howard is the official starter, Breida could see as much or more playing time as a passing-down back in an offense that will be forced to throw a lot while playing from behind. He's also likely going to be the more efficient of the two backs, and that could convince the Dolphins to move him into the RB1 role, which could make him an every-week starter in fantasy.

Breida checks in at RB35 in our 2020 fantasy football rankings, and he's a great late-round target, especially if you're taking a zero RB approach to your draft.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.