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Lightning vs Islanders Odds, Betting Lines, Picks & Preview for NHL Playoffs Game 5 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Elisha Twerski
Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Islanders - Game Four
Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Islanders - Game Four / Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
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Lightning vs Islanders NHL Game 5 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 5 (Series Tied 2-2)
Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3) vs. New York Islanders (32-17-7)
Date: Monday, June 21, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Lightning vs Islanders Odds, Moneyline and Total

All are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Lightning -186 | Islanders +156
Spread:
Lightning -1.5 (+152) | Islanders +1.5 (-184)
Total:
5.5 – Over +128 | Under -158
Odds to win Stanley Cup:
Lightning +155 | Islanders +500

Lightning vs Islanders Predictions and Picks

  • Islanders +156

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders News, Analysis, and Picks

We have four games of data to dissect, and regardless of venue, the New York Islanders continue to outplay the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, that dominance hasn't translated to more victories, as the Islanders find themselves tied with the Lightning, heading back to Tampa Bay for Game 5. Nevertheless, the advanced metrics support that the Islanders are the team worth backing, even if that's contraindicated in the betting market.

New York has yet to be outplayed at five-on-five in this series. The Islanders have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in all four games, with a cumulative percentage of 56.2%. Defense continues to be the backbone of the Islanders' success, as they have limited the Bolts to eight or fewer high-danger chances in all four games. The Islanders will need to maintain that defensive integrity if they hope to steal Game 5 from the Lightning. And that shouldn't be a problem against a Lightning team that hasn't used home ice to their advantage so far this postseason.

Tampa has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% at five-on-five in four of their seven home playoff games. In addition, the Lightning have been held to eight or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in five of the seven games while getting out-possessed in four of seven and out-shot in five of seven. Even with the metrics working against them, the Lightning have won 10 of 15 games this postseason. A cursory opinion would support that the Lightning are finding a way to win games; however, the advanced metrics support that the Lightning have made it further than they deserve. 

Tampa has the highest PDO of all playoff teams and continues to win despite getting outplayed in most of their games. The Lightning continue to walk an unsustainable path that puts them at risk of falling victim to correction. The Bolts have attempted just 29 high-danger chances at five-on-five this series while getting out-chanced in three of four games.

On the other bench, the Islanders have been out-chanced in high-danger chances just twice over their last nine games, continually outplaying their opponents. The Islanders have been superior throughout this series but continue to get priced as underdogs.

With a win tonight, the Isles can head home with a series lead and a chance to close the series out at home. Take the Islanders to win.


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