The Duel

Leonard Fournette Fantasy Outlook Could Explode in Second Half of Season Despite TD Regression

Jason Schandl
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Leonard Fournette has scored the fifth-most PPR fantasy football points of any running back in 2019. That comes despite having found the end zone just once.

Looking at the other nine back in the top-10, all have at least five touchdowns, with an average of 7.3. Touchdowns are one of the most high-variance stats at any position, and already succeeding without the help of TDs, Fournette's fantasy outlook could explode with even a modest increase in that column.

This lack of TDs hasn't come from a lack of opportunity, either. Fournette is second in the NFL with 34 carries in the red zone, and the 10 other players with 20-plus red zone carries have all scored at least three times on those touches.

A 2.9 percent TD rate on red zone carries is absurdly low, but we shouldn't read much into a high-variance stat like that, especially on a relatively small sample. Fournette had a 23.5 percent TD rate on red zone carries (12 scores on 51 rushes) in 2017 and 2018 combined, and in general we can expect him 15.3 percent career average on that front.

This Jacksonville Jaguars offense is also not having a ton of trouble getting into scoring range, sitting in the middle of the pack (19th) with an average of 9.8 red zone plays per game, with 38.7 percent of their drives (13th) ending in a score.

Second only to Christian McCaffrey with 26.0 opportunities (20.4 carries plus 5.6 targets) per game, Fournette has the kind of workload that all but ensures fantasy dominance.

If he starts finding the end zone at even a middling rate, he could vault even higher than his fantasy football RB5 ranking in the second half of the season. If Fournette is on your roster you should hold tight, and if he's not then now is the time to send out some trade offers to acquire him.

Taking on the Houston Texans on Sunday, Fournette sits at RB6 in our Week 9 PPR fantasy football rankings.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.