3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 7/9/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Antonio Senzatela has produced reverse splits on the mound all season, permitting a .402 wOBA, 2.03 HR/9, and 38.6% flyball rate to right-handed batters (compared to a .408 wOBA, 0.97 HR/9, and 25.0% flyball rate to left-handed batters). Furthermore, Senzatela is giving up a .422 wOBA, 2.00 HR/9, and 37.7% flyball rate to righties on the road, and he'll be on the bump with humid weather at Fenway Park on Wednesday.

Taking all of that into account, we'll back one of the hottest hitters in baseball by taking Trevor Story to hit a dinger in this matchup. Since June 30, Story has tallied the 10th-best average exit velocity (95.9 MPH) and 13th-best hard-hit rate (62.1%) in baseball while earning the 4th-best wOBA (.556), 5th-best wRC+ (263), and 8th-best ISO (.455) during that span.

Even if the Colorado Rockies roll out an opener or Senzatela has a short outing, their relievers have notched the ninth-worst HR/9 (1.41) over the last 14 days. Lastly, the slider is Senzatela's secondary pitch to right-handed hitters, and Story is registering a .282 ISO, 56.7% hard-hit rate, and 10.0% barrel rate versus right-handed sliders in 2025.

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Although it's a limited sample of 9 appearances and 42.2 innings pitched this season, David Festa is another right-handed hurler flashing reverse splits, as he's coughing up a .347 wOBA, 2.05 HR/9, and 44.4% flyball rate to righties (compared to a .315 wOBA, 0.87 HR/9, and 42.1% flyball rate to lefties). With those splits in mind, Seiya Suzuki stands out in the home run market on Wednesday.

Despite Suzuki crushing southpaws to the tune of a .407 wOBA, 167 wRC+, .302 ISO, and 44.9% flyball rate this year, he's also posting a .353 wOBA, 129 wRC+, .292 ISO, and 47.2% flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Across the last 14 days, Suzuki is recording the 6th-best barrel rate (22.6%) and 16th-highest flyball rate (51.6%), so he's hitting it hard and putting it in the air often.

Suzuki is logging a .231 ISO or higher and 7.9% barrel or higher against three of Festa's four primary pitches (slider, four-seam fastball, and sinker) versus right-handed hitters this season. While Festa could evolve into a quality pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, he's given up at least one homer in four of his last six outings.

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Nick Kurtz simply won't stop hitting baseballs over the fence, with the rookie slugger hitting his 14th homer of the season on Tuesday versus the Atlanta Braves. On Wednesday, Kurtz will get to face Bryce Elder, who is in the 3rd percentile in xERA (6.00), 17th percentile in barrel rate (10.7%), and 9th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.4%) across his 14 starts and 73.0 innings pitched in 2025.

While Elder is allowing a .390 wOBA and 2.20 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, he's also permitting a .361 wOBA and 1.69 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Kurtz is sporting a stellar .408 wOBA, 162 wRC+, and .338 ISO versus right-handed pitching, and those numbers increase to a .499 wOBA, 225 wRC+, and .451 ISO when facing a righty at home.

Along with winds blowing out to right field at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park on Wednesday, Kurtz owns a .267 ISO or better and 15.4% barrel rate or better versus all four of Elder's pitches (slider, sinker, changeup, and four-seam fastball) against right-handed batters this year. On top of that, Atlanta's bullpen has tallied the 12th-worst HR/9 (1.22) and 7th-worst barrel rate (7.7%) over the last 14 days of action.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.