The Duel

Drew Brees' Projected Passing Totals Are Disrespectful

Max Staley
Drew Brees' passing totals are disrespectful to the Saints QB.
Drew Brees' passing totals are disrespectful to the Saints QB. / Sean Gardner/Getty Images
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Tom Brady gets all the credit for being the NFL's resident old man, but the 41-year-old Drew Brees can still spin it with the best of them. However, the oddsmakers apparently don't agree with that.

FanDuel Sportsbook has released their projected passing totals for Brees' 2020 season, and they're so low they can only be described as disrespectful.

The oddsmakers have the over/under for Brees' passing yards pegged at 4,049.5, and the over/under for his touchdowns is available at 30.5. Those feel almost comically low – particularly the yardage total.

Since 2006, his first year with the New Orleans Saints, Brees has cleared that total in 12 of 14 seasons. The only occasions he failed to reach that threshold (2018, 2019) were due to missed time. In 2018 Brees averaged 266.1 passing yards per game through 15 appearances, which equates to a 16-game pace of about 4,258 yards.

He averaged 270.8 per contest last year, which obviously would've cleared the target mark as well. In fact, that per-game average accounts for a Week 2 contest he left after throwing for just 38 yards. If we remove that, his actual per-game average was closer to 294.1 (16-game pace of 4,705.6).

As for his passing touchdowns, TDs can be a bit more sporadic and unpredictable, but Brees is usually a safe bet to reach 31. Over his last 10 campaigns, Brees has reached at least 31 passing TDs eight times. Again, it would've been 9 of 10 had he been healthy in 2019.

There's also reason to believe he could be even better in 2020 than he was last year. He finally has a legitimate No. 2 wide receiver (Emmanuel Sanders), and the thumb injury that bothered him for much of the season has had time to fully heal.

Simply put, Brees has crushed these projections almost every year of his career in New Orleans, and he now gets to play in what is arguably the most loaded offense he's ever had.

His projections being this low just doesn't make any sense.


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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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