Dolphins Being Disrespected in Odds to Win AFC East

Max Staley
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are legitimate contenders.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are legitimate contenders. / Chris Coduto/Getty Images
facebooktwitterreddit

With Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, the Miami Dolphins are straight-up wrecking opponents right now. They're 3-0 in his three starts, beating the Los Angeles Rams, Chargers and Arizona Cardinals by an average of 7.3 points per game (PPG) in that time.

At this point, it's impossible to deny that Brian Flores' team is legit. But the oddsmakers apparently never got the memo, as the odds they've given the Dolphins to win the AFC East are so low they can only be described as disrespectful.

Miami is currently available at +300 to win the AFC East, according to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL futures. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are inexplicably considered the heavy favorites, boasting -350 odds to take the divisional crown. Essentially, these numbers suggest the oddsmakers view the Bills as a lock to pull it off, which is flat-out ridiculous.

The standings tell a very different story. The 6-3 Dolphins are only 0.5 games back of the 7-3 Bills by virtue of having played one fewer game thus far. That means the Week 17 matchup between these two could very well decide the division.

Speaking of Miami's schedule, it's as easy as it gets. The Dolphins' next three opponents only have a combined 5 victories on the year. Four of Miami's next six games are against a team currently below .500. If Tua and Co. take care of business, the division will almost certainly come down to that pivotal Week 17 showdown.

And Miami is built to give a team like Buffalo problems. Two of the Bills' three losses have come against a defense that ranks top 12 in both points allowed and Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metrics. Flores' defense ranks No. 5 in points against and No. 8 vs. the pass by DVOA. It's hard to see Josh Allen's high-octane attack working against a secondary this good.

At the very least, that looks like a matchup of two even teams. If anything, it might even skew in Miami's favor. Just looking at point differential, the Dolphins have outscored opponents by 69 points this year, which is the fifth-best mark in the league. And each of the four teams ahead of them in that regard rank top-six in the odds to win the Super Bowl. That's championship-caliber stuff.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is barely squeaking by its opponents, boasting a mediocre plus-7 point differential.

With the division likely to come down to that Week 17 matchup, putting the Bills as -350 favorites to win the AFC East just doesn't make sense.

Miami has an extremely realistic chance to win this division, and it's well past time for the odds to reflect that.


Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk free for up to $1,000!


Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

facebooktwitterreddit