The David Montgomery hype train left the station as soon as the Chicago Bears traded up to select him in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft, and it steadily built up steam through the remainder of the offseason. That left him with an average draft position (ADP) of RB21 in fantasy football, per FantasyPros.com, while Tarik Cohen saw his value fall (to RB33) and Mike Davis (RB68) became a complete afterthought.
Following Week 1's Thursday Night Football loss to the Green Bay Packers, though, it may be time to pump the breaks a bit.
Admittedly, Thursday's 10-3 season-opener was an ugly enough game for both offenses that it's hard to draw any sweeping conclusions. The Bears also leaned very heavily on the pass, with Mitch Trubisky throwing the ball 45 times while Chicago ran only 15 times as a team.
That gameplan included zero carries (but 10 targets) for Cohen, so early indications are that Chicago will have no problem keeping him involved in the passing game while having another back lead the team on the ground.
The cloudiness comes down to whether that back is going to be Montgomery or Davis.
The Bears didn't call a single run play in the final 11 minutes of the game, but when they were running the ball Montgomery had the slight edge in volume.
He also had more receiving yards than Davis (27 to 17). Those numbers don't tell the whole story.
Davis was targeted seven times (compared to one for Montgomery), giving him a 12-to-seven edge in opportunities to go with his snap count advantage.
Mike Davis Fantasy Outlook
It's still not exciting to see an inefficient back like Davis get 12 opportunities and a 56 percent snap share, and unless we see Montgomery's workload actually shrink, Davis is only going to offer fringe value in this pass-heavy offense.
In a deep league with 14-plus teams or expanded rosters it could be worth taking a flier on Davis, but for now you may be best served leaving him on your waiver wire.
David Montgomery Fantasy Outlook
For now, you're going to want to leave Montgomery on your bench. This was the first regular-season game of the rookie's career, so there's no need to overreact and drop him — especially while bye weeks haven't started cutting down bench space.
His value is purely speculative now. A poor first game of the season hasn't doomed his fantasy outlook moving forward, but until we see his snap count and opportunity share starting to climb to the levels Davis posted, it's going to be hard to justify putting Montgomery in your fantasy lineup.
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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel