Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Outlook Includes Bust Potential in 2020

Max Staley
Aaron Rodgers' fantasy outlook could lead to bust potential.
Aaron Rodgers' fantasy outlook could lead to bust potential. / Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers was not a good fantasy quarterback last year. On a per-game basis, he averaged just 17.4 points per game (PPG). That was just the 14th-best average in fantasy, meaning he was barely worth starting.

Nothing about the Green Bay Packers' 2020 offseason suggests that's going to change, and he's our biggest bust candidate at the position.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook

Rodgers is coming off the board at QB11, per FantasyPros. The eight-time Pro Bowler is unlikely to return much value at that slot.

Statistically, Rodgers has been in a steady decline for a while. To be fair, he's dropping from historical efficiency to being well-above average, but it's still a noticeable decline.

He averaged 9.1 adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A) from 2009-14. That has fallen to 7.7 AY/A from 2015-19. For reference, a 1.4 difference in AY/A was equivalent to the gap between Russell Wilson (8.7) and Gardner Minshew (7.3) last year.

Rodgers' ceiling just isn't what it used to be. We haven't seen a top-five fantasy finish from the Packers' signal-caller since 2016. Back in his prime, he was a top-two fantasy QB every year from 2009-14, save for his injury-riddled 2013 season.

In a vacuum, he's probably still good enough to get back to the proverbial fantasy mountaintop, but Rodgers no longer seems capable of dragging this supporting cast there with him.

Last season no Green Bay pass-catcher reached even 500 receiving yards, aside from Davante Adams. And the Packers inexplicably did nothing to address the receiving corps in the offseason, instead opting to spend their first-round pick on Rodgers' eventual replacement.

In fact, most of their offseason moves paint a pretty worrying picture for Rodgers' fantasy value. Green Bay added a pure power back in A.J. Dillon in Round 2, then added three offensive linemen and one tight end with four of their next five picks.

These moves seem to indicate that second-year head coach Matt LaFleur wants to emulate his mentor Kyle Shanahan by installing a run-first offense in Green Bay. To that point, LaFleur's first year with the team saw Green Bay fall to No. 15 overall in team pass attempts, while they had been No. 5 and No. 3 overall in Rodgers' last two healthy seasons (2018 and 2016, respectively).

Another dip in volume would sink Rodgers' fantasy value even further, and even if his volume remains stagnant, there's little reason to believe he'll be dramatically more efficient than he was in 2019.

Rodgers is still an elite real-life quarterback, but his days as a fantasy giant in Green Bay appear to be over. With concerns about the Packers' personnel and offensive system, it looks like Rodgers is being drafted around his ceiling, but he's being taken ahead of quarterbacks with legitimate top-5 upside. That's not a winning fantasy formula.

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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.