The Duel
NCAAF Betting

2021 Florida Win Total: Odds, Betting Trends, & Over/Under

Elisha Twerski
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic - Oklahoma v Florida
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic - Oklahoma v Florida / Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
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Florida Gators Win Total

Florida Gators Win Total: 9.0

  • Over: +110
  • Under: -130

Find comprehensive college football season win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida Gators NCAA FBS Championship 2021-22 Odds

Florida Gators NCAA FBS National Championship Odds: +4000

Florida Gators SEC Championship Odds

Florida Gators SEC Championship Odds: +1800

  • Alabama: -160
  • Georgia: +190
  • Texas A&M: +1200
  • Florida: +1800
  • LSU: +2500
  • Mississippi: +3000
  • Missouri: +4000
  • Auburn: +5000
  • Kentucky: +6000
  • Mississippi State: +10000
  • Tennessee: +10000
  • South Carolina: +15000
  • Arkansas: +25000
  • Vanderbilt: +25000

Florida Betting Trends, News and Notes

The Florida Gators head into their fourth season with Dan Mullen at the helm. Last year, they eclipsed their win total of 7.5 games with two games to spare in the regular season. That was certainly great news for bettors who played the over. The problem for Florida fans is they failed to win another game the rest of the way. Florida lost 37-34 to a 3-5 LSU team at the time. They then suffered another tough loss to Alabama, 52-46, in the SEC Championship Game.

By the time bowl season came around, there wasn't much left in the tank as they got drubbed 55-20 by Oklahoma. Now, with teams expected to play a full schedule this season, the Gators' win total has been set at nine games. But is that expectation too high for a team that will be without their starting quarterback in Kyle Trask and arguably the best offensive player in the draft in Kyle Pitts? Let's take a look as we preview their 2021 season.

ESPN's Bill Connelly has released the returning production for every FBS team that played during 2020, and he projects Florida will return only 55% of its production this season. That's actually the second-worst in the SEC and 121st in the country. Certainly, the departure of Trask and Pitts is a big reason for that decline. But let's dig into the roster to assess what kind of talent the Gators are working with.

Florida won't just be replacing their quarterback. They'll also have a new offensive coordinator after Brian Johnson departed to become the Philadelphia Eagles quarterbacks coach. Passing game coordinator Billy Gonzales and running game coordinator John Hevesy will share duties to fill Johnson's role. Both coaches shared this role before Johnson was elevated from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. The duo will have their work cut out for them with an offensive line without left tackle Stone Forsythe and center Brett Heggie. Both linemen combined to start 59 games for the Gators in their careers before moving on to the NFL.

Redshirt junior Richard Gouraige will likely take over at left tackle, while Stewart Reese looks to have the inside track to replace Heggie at the center position. Reese should provide a veteran presence on the line as he'll be returning for his sixth season, given the NCAA's additional year of eligibility due to the pandemic.

They'll be tasked with protecting Emory Jones, who is the likely starter at quarterback. While he might not necessarily have Trask's precision as a quarterback, his head coach is optimistic about some things he can bring to the table. "There's a lot of throws that Emory can make that Kyle couldn't make," Mullen said. Nonetheless, it wouldn't surprise me if Florida deploys an offense with more deception and quarterback-designed runs out of the backfield. In his last two seasons, Emory has scored six rushing touchdowns and averaged 6.5 yards per rush.

That could work well with Florida's strength at running back with Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis returning. Pierce and Davis actually combined to average 4.7 yards per rush on 172 attempts.

At the wide receiver skill position, the Gators will need to replace Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney, who wrapped up their careers at Florida. It will be up to the redshirt juniors Jacob Copeland and Justin Shorter to fill their shoes. Outside of Copeland and Shorter, the Gators are fairly inexperienced within this group as sophomores Xzavier Henderson and Ja'Quavion Fraziars will both push for playing time and compete against two redshirt seniors in Jordan Pouncey and Rick Wells, both of whom haven't had much playing time in their Florida careers.

It might surprise you, but Florida could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Pitts at the tight end position. Redshirt senior Kemore Gamble averaged 16 yards per reception on ten catches last season, which was just two yards shy of Pitts' 17.9 yards per catch. Junior Keon Zipperer also proved to be effective with 13.2 yards per catch on nine catches. Given their skill set, the tight end position should remain a big part of the Florida offense in 2021.

The defense will probably be the key determinant on whether the Gators will be successful this season. Their front seven should be relatively intact, but they'll need to develop their interior tackles after the graduation of TJ Slaton to the NFL. Florida brought in graduate transfers Daquan Newkirk and Antonio Valentino to help fill the void and address this issue. Zach Carter will return as a redshirt senior, and he's likely to line up at the defensive end. Carter was named preseason first-team All-SEC after picking up five sacks last year and leading All-Conference D-linemen with 9.5 tackles for loss.

At the linebacker position, redshirt seniors Ventrell Miller and Jeremiah Moon will lead a unit that should have plenty of experience with 56 starts among them. Miller led the group with 88 tackles, and they're also solid at weak linebacker, where Brenton Cox Jr., Khris Bogle, and Andrew Chatfield Jr racked up 10.5 sacks as a group. As a sophomore, Florida's defensive strength should also extend to the cornerback position, with Kaiir Elam fresh off first-team All-SEC honors.

It'll be interesting to see if junior Jaydon Hill fills the other cornerback position. Hill was a backup for the majority of the season after starting the first four games. Florida should have exceptional depth at this position with new transfers, Elijah Blades and Jadarrius Perkins. They should also be pushed by five-star recruit Jason Marshall Jr. who will be vying for playing time as a true freshman. While Florida should be strong at the corners, the rest of its secondary will have to replace some key figures. The Gators lost both their starting safeties in Donovan Stiner and Shawn Davis to the NFL. They'll also be without Brad Stewart Jr., who also played outside linebacker in their 4-3 scheme. After going undrafted in the NFL, Stewart signed with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the CFL. The top junior college recruit, Diwun Black, will likely replace Stewart at the hybrid position.

At safety, the group will need to rely on senior Trey Dean III to lead the talented sophomore duo of Tre'Vez Johnson and Rashad Torrence II.

The Gators will face Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Samford, and Florida State as part of their non-conference slate. I think the Florida State game could be a tricky spot for the Gators, but they should prevail. That should give them a 4-0 non-conference campaign with SEC home games against Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and road games against Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Missouri. I would count the games against Alabama and Georgia as losses, and it wouldn't surprise me if they picked up another loss against LSU or Missouri.

All in all, I project the Gators to win nine games, and I think they have a greater chance to actually finish below that number as opposed to going over their total. Thus, I can only look to play them under their win total of nine games, and it might be worthwhile even to swallow some juice if you take an alternate line of 9.5.


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