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Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers: Will the Jets Sweep the Oilers?

Elisha Twerski
Edmonton Oilers v Winnipeg Jets - Game Three
Edmonton Oilers v Winnipeg Jets - Game Three / Jason Halstead/Getty Images
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Jets vs. Oilers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Moneyline
: Jets (+100) | Oilers (-118)
Spread: Jets +1.5 (-280) | Oilers -1.5 (-225)
Total: 5.5 – Over (-120) | Under (-102)
Odds to Win Series: Jets (-1800) | Oilers (+1080)
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Jets +2000 | Oilers +10000

Jets vs. Oilers News, Analysis, and Picks

The Edmonton Oilers had their hearts ripped out in the final 10 minutes of the third period last night. Edmonton was leading 4-1 before the Winnipeg Jets scored four unanswered goals, including the overtime winner, knocking off the Oilers 5-4 and taking a 3-0 series stranglehold into Game 4.

The Jets' series lead boils down to the play of Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg has posted an expected goals-for percentage, at five-on-five and across all strengths, below 50.0% in all three games. They've given up an average of 39.7 shots, 34.0 scoring opportunities, and 18.3 high-danger chances per game this series. The Jets survived an onslaught last night, a game in which the Oilers attempted 40 scoring chances and 23 high-danger chances. However, Hellebuyck has had an answer, stopping 95.8% of shots, including 90.7% of shots from high-danger areas so far this series.

Winnipeg's offense has also been operating efficiently. They score on 10.5% of shots, placing them third in the league, below the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche. That output is coming on the heels of diminished production metrics and while getting outplayed in every game. In sum, with their save percentage, the Jets have put up the third-highest PDO at 1.063.

We witnessed a desperate effort from the Oilers last night, and we should expect nothing different tonight. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl came to life in Game 3, recording their first postseason points. Draisaitl put up two goals and an assist, and McDavid recorded three helpers. The duo continues to be metrics darlings, putting up expected goals-for percentages above 60.0%, but remain below expected values. Winnipeg hasn't had an answer for McDavid and Draisaitl all season; that's not going to change in Game 4.

The personnel changes that the Oilers made also boosted their chances in Game 3. Although limited in ice time, the line of Gaetan Haas, Tyler Ennis, and Kailer Yamamoto put up an expected goals-for percentage of 68.9% at five-on-five. The Oilers are getting above-average production from three of their four lines and continue to wear out the Jets. The Jets are on an unsustainable path, getting outplayed in each game this series but still holding a commanding 3-0 series lead. The Jets' PDO may inflate higher, but the Jets can't continue to get outplayed and win games.

The moneyline price has decreased on the Oilers throughout the series, and we're betting they don't go down without a fight.

The Bet: Oilers -118


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